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SEC Team - Most Similar Historical Profiles and their NCAAT performance (Torvik)

Posted on 3/10/25 at 1:57 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104762 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 1:57 pm







































Posted by AlextheBodacious
Member since Oct 2020
2214 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:00 pm to
These metrics don’t account for the Bruce Pearl piece of shite factor. He’ll run out of sweat before the title game and Auburn will be out of the tourney.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104762 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

These metrics don’t account for the Bruce Pearl piece of shite factor. He’ll run out of sweat before the title game and Auburn will be out of the tourney.


I can confirm there is no input for "Coach Piece of Shite Factor".
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
51605 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:05 pm to
So anything is possible.
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
29311 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:05 pm to
This is pretty cool but I noticed a major flaw. Arkansas is seeded behind UGA, despite Arkansas being ahead in the conference standings due to tiebreaker. Please tell Bart to fix ASAP.
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
25487 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

2010 Kansas: Round of 32

Northern Iowa brothers TYFYS
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
32805 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:35 pm to
Man, 2010 Kansas must have been a MASSIVE disappointment. Every other team made at least the S16 in the Auburn list, and half of them won the whole thing.

Does being in the SEC just kill defensive rankings? Auburn, Florida, and Alabama are all better offensively than the similar teams but worse defensively.

I did find it interesting that Alabama's "most similar" team is 3.9... that wouldn't even make the list for Florida. I'm guessing Florida is the more typical-style team.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104762 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

So anything is possible.


Always is, but I do think this tool is pretty helpful to give an idea of range of possibilities based on how fast you play, and off/def efficiency (plus the other smaller inputs of 3pt rate, def/off reb rate, etc.

If you do the old remove the best and 2 worst it gives a pretty solid picture

Auburn : Best - National Champs; Worst - Sweet 16

Florida : Best - National Champs; Worst - Sweet 16

Alabama : Best - National Champs; Worst - Sweet 16

Tennessee : Best - Final 4; Worst - Sweet 16

Texas A&M : Best - Elite 8; Worst - Second Round

Kentucky : Best - Elite 8; Worst - Second Round

Missouri : Best - Elite 8; Worst - First Round

Georgia : Best - Round 32; Worst - First Round

Ole Miss: Best - Sweet 16; Worst - First Round

Mississippi State : Best - Sweet 16; Worst - First Round

Vanderbilt : Best - Second Round; Worst - First Round

Oklahoma : Best - Second Round; Worst- First Round

Arkansas : Best - Second Round; Worst - First Round

Texas : Best - Elite 8; Worst - First Round
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104762 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

Man, 2010 Kansas must have been a MASSIVE disappointment.


33-3 (15-1 BXII)

They went 32-2 before the tournament with their 2 losses being @ Tennessee and @ Oklahoma State and then this happened

Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
32805 posts
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

33-3 (15-1 BXII)

They went 32-2 before the tournament with their 2 losses being @ Tennessee and @ Oklahoma State and then this happened


I get that upsets happen, but dang...
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