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Jalen Milroe. The Sobering Truth From an NFL Scout...
Posted on 7/20/24 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 7/20/24 at 3:40 pm
Here is a definitive breakdown I pulled from an NFL Scout:
"As much as it pains my heart, I have no choice but to move Milroe down on my 2025 NFL Draft Board.
Why?
After moving him up to a ‘developmental’ first-round grade after studying the first half of 2023, I didn’t like what I saw as much studying him in the second half of last season.
I already knew he wasn’t going to be a ‘plug-and-play’ franchise QB, and that he would need time to develop in the NFL, but he looked more limited as a passer in the second half of last season.
What he’s doing works playing college ball, but it won’t work going into a league that requires quarterbacks making consistent multiple progressions while reading the whole field, a quick time to throw, and precise downfield ball placement to achieve success. In 2023, NFL QB times to throw were between 2.36 seconds and 3.23 seconds (Next Gen Stats).
Maybe part of it is my evolving as an evaluator too. I feel like I am becoming more in tune with the traits it takes for college QBs to successfully transition to the NFL and ‘processing time’ (time to throw) is near the top of that list.
Milroe’s 3.45-second average time to throw was the slowest time to throw in the FBS.
That gives me pause when making an NFL projection.
What was on the film?
I’m not a big analytics guy, but what scares me most about Milroe’s ‘time to throw’ number is that’s exactly what it looks like on film.
Short
Intermediate
Deep
IT DIDN’T MATTER.
A slower release time threw everything off and caused average-looking ball placement because too often the timing was off between Milroe and his targets.
Milroe threw 24 pass breakups (1.71 per game average). He also wasn’t throwing with much anticipation at the intermediate route level (11-19 yards). He tended to throw to wide-open targets or receivers after they made their breaks at route break points. While his forte is the deep ball, I tallied 8/21 (38%) completions. Even that wasn’t what it needed to be.
Holding the ball too long also caused Milroe to take 44 sacks in 2023. In addition, he ran A LOT, with 161 rushing attempts. Too often bailing out of the pocket because there is only so long the line could hold up.
Alabama had to adjust their offense by creating more designed runs for Milroe and ‘flood concepts,’ which are multiple receivers running routes on one side of the field so he doesn’t have to read the whole field.
During the Kentucky game, the announcer said, “Tommy Rees [Alabama offensive coordinator] mentioned when we talked to him, ‘I want to take some of the quick decisions off his plate and just let him be an athlete, give him a couple lead blockers, get into some green grass and let him take over.'”
2024 Summer Grade: Third-Round"
"As much as it pains my heart, I have no choice but to move Milroe down on my 2025 NFL Draft Board.
Why?
After moving him up to a ‘developmental’ first-round grade after studying the first half of 2023, I didn’t like what I saw as much studying him in the second half of last season.
I already knew he wasn’t going to be a ‘plug-and-play’ franchise QB, and that he would need time to develop in the NFL, but he looked more limited as a passer in the second half of last season.
What he’s doing works playing college ball, but it won’t work going into a league that requires quarterbacks making consistent multiple progressions while reading the whole field, a quick time to throw, and precise downfield ball placement to achieve success. In 2023, NFL QB times to throw were between 2.36 seconds and 3.23 seconds (Next Gen Stats).
Maybe part of it is my evolving as an evaluator too. I feel like I am becoming more in tune with the traits it takes for college QBs to successfully transition to the NFL and ‘processing time’ (time to throw) is near the top of that list.
Milroe’s 3.45-second average time to throw was the slowest time to throw in the FBS.
That gives me pause when making an NFL projection.
What was on the film?
I’m not a big analytics guy, but what scares me most about Milroe’s ‘time to throw’ number is that’s exactly what it looks like on film.
Short
Intermediate
Deep
IT DIDN’T MATTER.
A slower release time threw everything off and caused average-looking ball placement because too often the timing was off between Milroe and his targets.
Milroe threw 24 pass breakups (1.71 per game average). He also wasn’t throwing with much anticipation at the intermediate route level (11-19 yards). He tended to throw to wide-open targets or receivers after they made their breaks at route break points. While his forte is the deep ball, I tallied 8/21 (38%) completions. Even that wasn’t what it needed to be.
Holding the ball too long also caused Milroe to take 44 sacks in 2023. In addition, he ran A LOT, with 161 rushing attempts. Too often bailing out of the pocket because there is only so long the line could hold up.
Alabama had to adjust their offense by creating more designed runs for Milroe and ‘flood concepts,’ which are multiple receivers running routes on one side of the field so he doesn’t have to read the whole field.
During the Kentucky game, the announcer said, “Tommy Rees [Alabama offensive coordinator] mentioned when we talked to him, ‘I want to take some of the quick decisions off his plate and just let him be an athlete, give him a couple lead blockers, get into some green grass and let him take over.'”
2024 Summer Grade: Third-Round"
This post was edited on 7/20/24 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 7/20/24 at 3:43 pm to BasedCrimson
Kid can play and is fun to watch
Posted on 7/20/24 at 3:46 pm to BasedCrimson
sounds about right, sadly.......
Posted on 7/20/24 at 3:59 pm to big d 18
He was hard to watch last year in some games. He is just more athletic than most QBs . He also has had three ocs in the last three years. I think that Deboer will play to his strengths and he will better this year.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:03 pm to BasedCrimson
Couldn't care less where he goes in the NFL Draft or if he is relegated to the UFL or CFL. If he can be good enough at Alabama to lead us to a national championship that is all that is required of him in my book.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:04 pm to BasedCrimson
The tape was rough sometimes last year we all know that. Still, I'm excited to see what he can do with a significant upgrade in offensive coaching. Hurts improved significantly going from Daboll to Riley.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:04 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
if he is relegated to the UFL or CFL. If he can be good enough at Alabama to lead us to a national championship that is all that is required of him in my book.
DeBoer's offense is QB-centric as he's said many times. If Milroe isn't good enough for the league, I doubt we'll win a natty.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:08 pm to BasedCrimson
Dare you to post that on BamaOnLine
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:10 pm to AlterDWI
quote:
Still, I'm excited to see what he can do with a significant upgrade in offensive coaching
I think this is overblown. Tommy Rees was great last year in transforming chicken shite to chicken salad.
As we saw with Kiffin and Blake Sims, there's only so much an OC can do with a severely limited QB.
I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'd hate to see DeBoer's first season be tanked by a QB who just can't get it together
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:18 pm to FreedomBarefoot
quote:
Who is the NFL scout?
Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:20 pm to BasedCrimson
Hopefully no Bama fan has ever taken Milroe seriously as an NFL QB even a backup or RB.
That being said, Georgia could not beat at home an Alabama team with Milroe at QB. And yet they continuously ask why didn't they get in the playoffs?
That being said, Georgia could not beat at home an Alabama team with Milroe at QB. And yet they continuously ask why didn't they get in the playoffs?
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:20 pm to BasedCrimson
There are no surprises with Milroe.
This post was edited on 7/20/24 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:21 pm to Captain Crown
quote:
Kid can play CFB and is fun to watch him play the college game.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:21 pm to thatthang
quote:
Stopped here. I’m not white knighting for Milroe by any means but you’re douchiness is off the charts. Hope that knowledge helps you.
Those aren't my words retard
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:24 pm to AlterDWI
quote:
Hurts improved significantly going from Daboll to Riley.
funny you should say that, because Daboll's offense struggled with Hurts all of 2017, and then Daboll got miraculously better when Tua started the 2nd half of the national title game
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:26 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Dare you to post that on BamaOnLine
I already did a few weeks ago. And yeah, there are some hardcore Milbros on that site.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:28 pm to BLG
quote:
Daboll's offense struggled with Hurts all of 2017, and then Daboll got miraculously better when Tua started the 2nd half of the national title game
Daboll was one of the best OCs we had during Saban's tenure. Him leaving and being replaced by Locksley was the primary reason why we didn't win a Natty in 2018
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:29 pm to BLG
quote:
I already did a few weeks ago. And yeah, there are some hardcore Milbros on that site.
Oh shite.
Can you post the link here so I can bump it?
Posted on 7/20/24 at 4:29 pm to BasedCrimson
So he's basically a Tim Tebow. That's perfectly fine if it works in the college game. He definitely is a great college player no matter what
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