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SEC Tiebreaker Calculator
Posted on 11/12/24 at 9:58 am
Posted on 11/12/24 at 9:58 am
LINK
I messed around with it for a bit and was surprised at how many scenarios put LSU in the SEC Championship game over us, despite the head to head.
I messed around with it for a bit and was surprised at how many scenarios put LSU in the SEC Championship game over us, despite the head to head.
4
Posted on 11/12/24 at 10:03 am to Goombaw
RIP productivity
Posted on 11/12/24 at 10:51 am to Goombaw
So if Bama wins out and LSU wins out all that has to happen to LSU to make the SEC title game is Vandy has to beat Tennessee and TAMU beat Texas.
That seems... wrong. It would be TAMU vs. LSU even though LSU would have lost to #1 and #3 and not played 4 or 5. That seems wrong.
If the favorites win each game from here on out Alabama would rematch LSU in the SECCG if Arkansas beats Texas this weekend. Every other game could be chalk (i.e. the expected winner wins).
That seems... wrong. It would be TAMU vs. LSU even though LSU would have lost to #1 and #3 and not played 4 or 5. That seems wrong.
If the favorites win each game from here on out Alabama would rematch LSU in the SECCG if Arkansas beats Texas this weekend. Every other game could be chalk (i.e. the expected winner wins).
This post was edited on 11/12/24 at 10:54 am
Posted on 11/12/24 at 10:53 am to JIB
Assuming things "play to expectations" (which won't happen anyway), the biggest swing game is Missouri vs Arkansas. If Missouri wins, we win the opponent win % tiebreaker. If Arkansas wins, LSU wins the opponent win % tiebreaker.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 11:08 am to Goombaw
Honestly I'd rather win out, miss the SEC title game, and probably end up hosting a first-round playoff game. The bye is somewhat negated by having to play for the conference championship, so you end up with the same amount of games (and maybe more if you lose the conference championship).
Posted on 11/12/24 at 11:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
That's insane. They'd be in over two teams with the same record whom they lost to (Bama and TAMU), with both losses being by double digits.
This system is dumb and broken.
This system is dumb and broken.
This post was edited on 11/12/24 at 11:09 am
Posted on 11/12/24 at 11:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
Don't like our chances there based on Mizzou with their current QB situation. But stranger things have happened.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 11:13 am to Bham Bammer
quote:
Honestly I'd rather win out, miss the SEC title game, and probably end up hosting a first-round playoff game.
For me if it means Texas wins the conference their first year in then absolutely not. Put us in Atlanta and let us put them back in their place.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 11:15 am to Bham Bammer
I agree. People dont really put much into conference championships anymore. The worst thing would be to get in the SEC championship game, get beat and get players hurt. I think Saban said, we did win 2 national championships and didnt win the SEC in those years. Getting in the playoff is going to be more important than winning the conference championship. If you are not in the conference championship game, players get a little rest, and can put in some new plays, etc.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 11:25 am to Goombaw
Time to bring back divisions.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 12:30 pm to mre
quote:
That's insane. They'd be in over two teams with the same record whom they lost to (Bama and TAMU), with both losses being by double digits. This system is dumb and broken.
I think these kinds of scenarios will be the norm with a 16 conference with no divisions and 8 conference games. Not enough overlap of opponents for things to necessarily “work out.”
Posted on 11/12/24 at 12:43 pm to elposter
quote:
8 conference games.
Need to go to 9 games.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 1:03 pm to Bham Bammer
quote:
Honestly I'd rather win out, miss the SEC title game, and probably end up hosting a first-round playoff game. The bye is somewhat negated by having to play for the conference championship, so you end up with the same amount of games (and maybe more if you lose the conference championship).
I'm with you... as long as we know Bama is ranked high enough to not get left out of the dance.
I'd rather take an opponent outside the SEC, with a fair chance it would be weaker competition. You don't have the downtime the week after (which is a blessing and a curse) but you should be ready to play.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 1:11 pm to captainFid
quote:
I'd rather take an opponent outside the SEC, with a fair chance it would be weaker competition.
Posted on 11/12/24 at 2:29 pm to Bham Bammer
quote:
Honestly I'd rather win out, miss the SEC title game, and probably end up hosting a first-round playoff game. The bye is somewhat negated by having to play for the conference championship, so you end up with the same amount of games (and maybe more if you lose the conference championship
Same
Posted on 11/12/24 at 2:50 pm to FightingOkra
quote:
Soft
One of the reasons Alabama doesn't have at least one (possibly more) titles in the past 10 years - the SEC cannibalized itself -- Bama left w/ no running backs in the championship; or no linebackers; or receivers taken out in SEC championships to Georgia.
We used to give Georgia grief because their first real game was against the winner of the West. Conference and SoS can make a team stronger, but it can also decimate a roster.
PS - Yes, it can occur in any game, of course [queue, Que Robinson]
Posted on 11/12/24 at 3:12 pm to JIB
Yeah it's a weird system.
IMO tie-breaker rules should seek to eliminate teams until you can get to H2H.
So instead of rewarding the team with the best conf opponent winning %. Remove the team with the worst % then re-do the tiebreakers. Repeat as necessary until 2-teams remain.
But with the possibility of 8 teams finishing 6-2 in SEC play and not a lot of H2H matchups between them, it'll still come down to some weird tiebreaker rules.
IMO tie-breaker rules should seek to eliminate teams until you can get to H2H.
So instead of rewarding the team with the best conf opponent winning %. Remove the team with the worst % then re-do the tiebreakers. Repeat as necessary until 2-teams remain.
But with the possibility of 8 teams finishing 6-2 in SEC play and not a lot of H2H matchups between them, it'll still come down to some weird tiebreaker rules.
This post was edited on 11/12/24 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 11/13/24 at 5:59 am to laxdabs
So a team could be SEC Champ with the same record as us and a loss to us head to head. Seems fair. 
Posted on 11/13/24 at 7:44 am to Bham Bammer
quote:
Honestly I'd rather win out, miss the SEC title game, and probably end up hosting a first-round playoff game. The bye is somewhat negated by having to play for the conference championship, so you end up with the same amount of games (and maybe more if you lose the conference championship).
This. 100%
Posted on 11/13/24 at 7:55 am to Che Boludo
5 is the best spot in the playoff. Followed closely by 6.
My opinion if we miss the SECCG which automatically gives us a 1-4 birth then we end up 5-8. For instance if BYU loses, Indiana etc they are fall pretty hard because of SoS. I think we win out, don’t play on the CG, and we sit 5-8. Perfect. Win SECCG still fine but harder path.
My opinion if we miss the SECCG which automatically gives us a 1-4 birth then we end up 5-8. For instance if BYU loses, Indiana etc they are fall pretty hard because of SoS. I think we win out, don’t play on the CG, and we sit 5-8. Perfect. Win SECCG still fine but harder path.
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