Started By
Message
It's hard to find a scenario where Alabama gets a home playoff game
Posted on 11/19/24 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 11/19/24 at 8:32 pm
Looking at the possible outcomes ahead, it's looking like the chances are increasingly slim, if not impossible that Bryant-Denny will get a playoff game this year. Here are the possible outcomes:
1. Alabama wins out and wins the SEC Championship game. They would automatically be in the top 4 and get a first-round bye, then likely play in Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1st.
2. Alabama wins out and loses the SEC Championship game. Despite what the committee says, I don't trust them to put a 3-loss, conference championship-game losing team in the playoffs. IF they did, Alabama would be likely the last 1-2 teams in and play on the road in the first week of the playoffs.
3. Alabama wins out, but Missouri loses their last 2 games. Credit to Syd for finding this scenario. It's the only one that would work for Alabama to win out and not make the SEC Champ game. It would require Mizzou to lose on the road at Mississippi State and then at home to Arkansas. Also, if Vandy were to then upset Tennessee, or A&M upset Texas, Bama would still wind up in the SECCG.
4. Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn. Alabama is out of the playoffs in all likelihood, if this happens. The only way they could possibly sneak back in is if a ton of teams ahead of them lost in the last weeks as well, but as I said before, a 3-loss team isn't likely to make it in.
1. Alabama wins out and wins the SEC Championship game. They would automatically be in the top 4 and get a first-round bye, then likely play in Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1st.
2. Alabama wins out and loses the SEC Championship game. Despite what the committee says, I don't trust them to put a 3-loss, conference championship-game losing team in the playoffs. IF they did, Alabama would be likely the last 1-2 teams in and play on the road in the first week of the playoffs.
3. Alabama wins out, but Missouri loses their last 2 games. Credit to Syd for finding this scenario. It's the only one that would work for Alabama to win out and not make the SEC Champ game. It would require Mizzou to lose on the road at Mississippi State and then at home to Arkansas. Also, if Vandy were to then upset Tennessee, or A&M upset Texas, Bama would still wind up in the SECCG.
4. Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn. Alabama is out of the playoffs in all likelihood, if this happens. The only way they could possibly sneak back in is if a ton of teams ahead of them lost in the last weeks as well, but as I said before, a 3-loss team isn't likely to make it in.
This post was edited on 11/19/24 at 10:27 pm
10
Posted on 11/19/24 at 8:37 pm to Goombaw
Best scenario is Bama losing a tight one in Atlanta.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 8:51 pm to Ssubba
We could win out, Missouri loses both of their last two games, that keeps us out of the SEC Championship but still in the playoff. Weird to me but that’s how I understand the only way we get a home playoff.
If we lose the SEC Championship I’d think we travel in the first round if we get in.
If we lose the SEC Championship I’d think we travel in the first round if we get in.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 8:58 pm to Ssubba
quote:
Best scenario is Bama losing a tight one in Atlanta.
Best scenario is a 1st round bye, which means winning the SEC CHAMPIONSHIP.
Otherwise we just add an extra game to the season
Posted on 11/19/24 at 9:29 pm to phaz
Yep the path is direct: win 3 ball games and play next in the quarterfinals.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 10:08 pm to Goombaw
I was hoping to get Notre Dame in the first round in Tuscaloosa.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 3:05 am to Chad4Bama
We’re all going to be so damn mad if Bama loses the SECCG by one point and gets fked outta the playoffs while ole miss, UGA UT and UTex get in. I have a terrible feeling. Hope to God I’m wrong.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 3:13 am to Hater Bait
quote:
“First and foremost, we're super focused on Oklahoma this week,” Booker said. “That's what we're worried about. But our program values, our pyramid of success, there's no ifs, ands or buts about it that Alabama wants to be in the SEC championship (game), and when we get there, we want to win it.
Got to respect the mentality of this team at the time.
This post was edited on 11/20/24 at 3:27 am
Posted on 11/20/24 at 5:36 am to bamabaum
Yeah I think if Bama loses the SECCG, they will still squeeze in but likely in the last spot and on the road in the 1st round
Posted on 11/20/24 at 7:29 am to Goombaw
Look on the bright side - Texas has struggled vs every single team with a pulse and got destroyed by Georgia.
I think there's a good chance they lose to Texas A&M.
Also DeBoer is 2-0 vs Sark.
I would feel good about us beating Texas in a neutral site game.
The positive side is we have a chance to win the SEC in year 1 with KDB and we'll have a prime spot in the playoffs.
I think we'd all have taken a spot in the SECCG before the season. Now we're complaining about it lol.
I think there's a good chance they lose to Texas A&M.
Also DeBoer is 2-0 vs Sark.
I would feel good about us beating Texas in a neutral site game.
The positive side is we have a chance to win the SEC in year 1 with KDB and we'll have a prime spot in the playoffs.
I think we'd all have taken a spot in the SECCG before the season. Now we're complaining about it lol.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 7:31 am to Goombaw
I actually disagree. Based on comments from Sankey, the committee chair and others that have all but told everybody they won’t punish the SEC and Big Ten title game losers. Just last night Manuel said just making the title game is a major point they would acknowledge. Indiana losing would drop them behind us and we’d already move up to the #8 seed and in position to host. There’s also no guarantee ND and PSU win out. I think just qualifying for the SEC title might jump is ahead of ND anyway.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 7:39 am to Goombaw
I never seen our fanbase so scared in my life.
Trying to find ways to play a home playoff game when the real prize is actually winning the conference and getting a four week bye.
Trying to find ways to play a home playoff game when the real prize is actually winning the conference and getting a four week bye.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 7:47 am to YStar
Playing and winning the SEC Championship and not playing in it results in the same amount of games being played/rest. I don't think there's much of a difference either way.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 8:16 am to Goombaw
If we make it to Atlanta, we have a great chance of winning that game. I like our match up vs Texas and A&M at the moment.
As cool as a home opener in the 1st round would be, I'll take a bye. Playing conference championship AND 1st round in playoff is a significant disadvantage imo considering we'd be playing an extra game compared to the majority of the field.
Atlanta is a must win if we find ourselves there.
As cool as a home opener in the 1st round would be, I'll take a bye. Playing conference championship AND 1st round in playoff is a significant disadvantage imo considering we'd be playing an extra game compared to the majority of the field.
Atlanta is a must win if we find ourselves there.
This post was edited on 11/20/24 at 8:17 am
Posted on 11/20/24 at 8:21 am to Goombaw
quote:
2. Alabama wins out and loses the SEC Championship game. Despite what the committee says, I don't trust them to put a 3-loss, conference championship-game losing team in the playoffs. IF they did, Alabama would be likely the last 1-2 teams in and play on the road in the first week of the playoffs.
I just can't fathom the committee dismissing the 2nd place team from the SEC or Big 10 in this scenario.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 8:38 am to Ssubba
quote:
Best scenario is Bama losing a tight one in Atlanta
The only time I have legit seen a loss as the better option was UCF once faced going to Shreveport if they won or Honolulu for a bowl if they lost..
The best scenario for Bama is to put 2024 on the list of SEC champions on the wall and take the bye and go play whomever makes it through the 5-12 all other options require some degree of hope and politicking
Posted on 11/20/24 at 9:00 am to PCRammer
quote:
I just can't fathom the committee dismissing the 2nd place team from the SEC or Big 10 in this scenario.
Because they absolutely won’t. If we beat Oklahoma and Auburn and get to Atlanta, then we are in the playoff.
ETA: I don’t see them punishing those losers in any way. Hypothetically if we are ranked #7 going in and lose that game, I’d be willing to bet we’d still be #7 afterwards.
This post was edited on 11/20/24 at 9:05 am
Posted on 11/20/24 at 9:15 am to Goombaw
You're almost certainly correct, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Notre Dame, Miami or Penn State (or any combo of the three) blow one in the next few weeks. I still don't know if that would be enough to even make the CFP, much less end up with a 5-8 seed, with a third loss but it's still possible I guess
Posted on 11/20/24 at 9:15 am to bigpapamac
I cannot believe how many people are falling for this narrative that a 3 loss team will automatically get in over a two loss team, just because they lost in a championship game. I could see that for a team that takes a second loss in a championship game, but not a third. To many teams that have only lost twice for a three loss team to get in.
Get yourself prepared because it’s not going to happen.
The best option for us is to not go to the SEC championship game.
Get yourself prepared because it’s not going to happen.
The best option for us is to not go to the SEC championship game.
Posted on 11/20/24 at 10:01 am to Alfie Solomons
Fear fear
Good Lord
Good Lord
Page 1 of 2
Latest Alabama News
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News