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Omaha Stats - National Seeds, Regional Host
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:29 pm
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:29 pm
If you are a National Seed, you have a 6.3% chance of winning the NC.
8 National Seeds each Year x 24 Years
192 Chances and 12 won = 192/12 = 6.3%
If you are a Regional Host but not a National Seed, you have a 3.1% chance of winning the NC.
8 Regional Hosts each Year x 24 Years
192 Chances and 6 won = 192/6 = 3.1%
You don't want to be #9, #10, #15, #16
These seeds have 0 NC and 0 Runner-Ups.
More than anything, I think this just shows you how hard it is to win a baseball NC. You have to be hot at the right time and hope that the baseball gods have blessed your team.
Thoughts?
5
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:37 pm to BigBro
Vitello will find a way to frick it all up
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:51 pm to BigBro
quote:
More than anything, I think this just shows you how hard it is to win a baseball NC.
Meanwhile, you have a powerhouse program in LSU that won another CWS Title without the eventual #1 overall pick ever touching the mound in the CWS Finals
Posted on 5/6/24 at 5:57 pm to TrailerParkSecurity
Your name checks out
Posted on 5/6/24 at 6:06 pm to DirtyCreekBottoms
quote:
DirtyCreekBottoms
Yours does too babygirl
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:00 pm to BigBro
you left out one. If David Pierce is your coach you have a 0% chance to win a NC 
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:46 pm to hookem33
It really is wild what Bertman was able to do in the 90s. He has destroyed our fan base though. Clowns expect to win it every few years now.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:25 pm to GeauxTime9
quote:
It really is wild what Bertman was able to do in the 90s. He has destroyed our fan base though. Clowns expect to win it every few years now.
Those were some fun teams to watch they could absolutely crush the ball
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:32 pm to BigBro
You definitely need to catch some breaks along the way
Pitching matchups are key as well
It also helps to stay in winners bracket in Omaha
What lsu did last year with 8 games in 10 days is next to impossible to pull off
To beat Fla in a three game series without having Skenes toe the rubber is hard to fathom looking back
Pitching matchups are key as well
It also helps to stay in winners bracket in Omaha
What lsu did last year with 8 games in 10 days is next to impossible to pull off
To beat Fla in a three game series without having Skenes toe the rubber is hard to fathom looking back
Posted on 5/7/24 at 6:39 am to nicholastiger
quote:
You definitely need to catch some breaks along the way
Pitching matchups are key as well
It also helps to stay in winners bracket in Omaha
What lsu did last year with 8 games in 10 days is next to impossible to pull off
To beat Fla in a three game series without having Skenes toe the rubber is hard to fathom looking back
All true..
LSU caught some breaks for sure. Everyone knew they had Skenes, but it dropped off a cliff after that.. yet those other guys pitched their asses off in Omaha.
Ole Miss - lucky to even get into the postseason.. then made a run as a 3 seed
Miss State - lucky to avoid that NC State team that was on fire..
Oregon State - sorry Hogs
Even going back to 2009, I saw some highlights of Texas vs LSU the other night.. Texas was up 6-4 with 2 outs in the 9th when DJ LemahowdoIspellthisnameoo hit a 2 run double to tie the game.. now that's not lucky per se, but it wasn't unlucky and could have gone the other way.
Fresno State pulling the NC with the 4 seed.
Coastal Carolina.. and the list goes on and on..
The ball just bounces funny some days.. but that is also what makes baseball the great sport that it is..
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:40 am to GeauxTime9
quote:
It really is wild what Bertman was able to do in the 90s. He has destroyed our fan base though. Clowns expect to win it every few years now.
Tanners last few years did the same. Gamecock fans remember Rays tenure as just 2010-2012 and forget the years we struggled. Now we have a team in the running for a national seed and our fans are more negative than positive
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:43 am to BigBro
quote:
All true..
LSU caught some breaks for sure. Everyone knew they had Skenes, but it dropped off a cliff after that.. yet those other guys pitched their asses off in Omaha.
Ole Miss - lucky to even get into the postseason.. then made a run as a 3 seed
Miss State - lucky to avoid that NC State team that was on fire..
Oregon State - sorry Hogs
Even going back to 2009, I saw some highlights of Texas vs LSU the other night.. Texas was up 6-4 with 2 outs in the 9th when DJ LemahowdoIspellthisnameoo hit a 2 run double to tie the game.. now that's not lucky per se, but it wasn't unlucky and could have gone the other way.
Fresno State pulling the NC with the 4 seed.
Coastal Carolina.. and the list goes on and on..
The ball just bounces funny some days.. but that is also what makes baseball the great sport that it is..
The Gamecocks 2010 run was a lot of good breaks. Losing game one. rallying game 2, beating Clemson twice in a row (one by starting a reliever known as Michael Roth). Beating two star pitchers in the finals.
2011 we go through the postseason undefeated. Extra innings against UVA where Matt Price got out of a few bases loaded no outs jams.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 8:53 am to BigBro
Nice analysis, real interesting to see the data/stats on it. With all the trolling that goes on this site, it’s really refreshing to see posts like this from time to time, keep it up, it’s certainly appreciated.
There’s a poster on Texags that does lots of stats and analysis on college sports (mostly football), by the name of spreadsheetAg, y’all would probably get along well.
There’s a poster on Texags that does lots of stats and analysis on college sports (mostly football), by the name of spreadsheetAg, y’all would probably get along well.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 9:14 am to Texas Gentleman
So fascinating that the #1 overall seed won it in the very first year of this format and then hasn’t won it a single time since. And has rarely even made the finals, with several #1 overall seeds failing to get to Omaha.
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