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ESPN - 2025 College Football Bill Connelly Returning Production, Improved/Regressing Teams
Posted on 2/24/25 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 2/24/25 at 4:26 pm
ESPN - Returning Production FBS 2025
SEC Teams Overall (Off, Def)
6. Texas A&M (19, 12)
8. Vanderbilt (28, 10)
10. Oklahoma (6, 46)
18. Florida (36, 25)
22. Auburn (21, 48)
35. Alabama (46, 37)
37. Mississippi State (71, 20)
38. LSU (41, 51)
51. Missouri (100, 5)
52. Kentucky (48, 61)
58. Tennessee (87, 22)
64. Arkansas (39, 88)
71. South Carolina (40, 99)
103. Texas (126, 44)
105. Georgia (108, 93)
113. Ole Miss (111, 104)
quote:
For a few years now, I've been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift a ton with the rising number of transfers. But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement or regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can tell us a lot. And in 2025, they tell us a lot about the state of college football.
quote:
With the explosion in use of the transfer portal in recent years, I've had to significantly change the way transfers are accounted for in the SP+ projections. They show up in both the returning production piece here and in the recruiting portions referenced above.
For returning production, I mash an incoming player's production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. (Because the translation in moving from the lower levels of the sport to the FBS is extremely inconsistent, I give only half-credit for players transferring up from lower divisions.) So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was productive elsewhere -- hello, Miami (Carson Beck) and Indiana (Fernando Mendoza) -- that dampens the blow of your QB leaving.
For the recruiting aspect, I attempt to account for incoming transfers' recruiting rankings in a given team's overall recruiting averages. The initial impact of a given recruiting class (freshmen plus transfers) is skewed heavily toward transfers before shifting toward younger recruits in future seasons.
Here is the current weighting for determining the offensive percentages above:
• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number
• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%
Broken out by position/player, you're looking at roughly 22% for the quarterback, 9% for each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends, 8% for each offensive lineman and 3% for the running back. Keep in mind: This is not based on my personal opinion of positional importance -- it's all about what impacts the numbers the most. On average, teams are able to overcome turnover at running back more easily than turnover at other positions. That's how Arizona State and Boise State can both end up in the top 10 in returning production despite losing two running backs -- Cam Skattebo and Ashton Jeanty, respectively -- who combined for 4,312 rushing yards in 2024.
Breaking things out by position is a bit trickier on defense, where units aren't as strictly defined and the percentage of returning production is derived both from position units and types of stats. I've also finally begun incorporating raw snap counts into the defensive production averages, and it seems to be a pretty strong predictor. Here's the approximate layout:
• Percent of returning snaps: 66%
• Percent of returning tackles: 19%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%
By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.
SEC Teams Overall (Off, Def)
6. Texas A&M (19, 12)
8. Vanderbilt (28, 10)
10. Oklahoma (6, 46)
18. Florida (36, 25)
22. Auburn (21, 48)
35. Alabama (46, 37)
37. Mississippi State (71, 20)
38. LSU (41, 51)
51. Missouri (100, 5)
52. Kentucky (48, 61)
58. Tennessee (87, 22)
64. Arkansas (39, 88)
71. South Carolina (40, 99)
103. Texas (126, 44)
105. Georgia (108, 93)
113. Ole Miss (111, 104)
This post was edited on 2/24/25 at 4:43 pm
1
Posted on 2/24/25 at 4:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Most likely to improve in 2025
Texas A&M (13th in SP+ in 2024, sixth in returning production in 2025). Mike Elko's first season at A&M was solid. The Aggies improved from 7-6 to 8-5 and from 16th to 13th in SP+. They head into 2025 having handed the QB reins to sophomore-to-be Marcel Reed, and they currently return running backs Amari Daniels and Le'Veon Moss -- who combined for 1,627 yards from scrimmage -- and players who accounted for 60 of 65 starts on the offensive line. The receiving corps and defensive line took solid hits of attrition (that's where Elko spent most of his transfer capital), but everyone's dealing with attrition of some sort. It's hard to move up in the SEC, but the Aggies will have a chance to do so if Reed can keep improving.
Florida (20th in SP+ in 2024, 18th in returning production in 2025). Despite a brutal schedule and the handing of the QB reins to freshman DJ Lagway midseason, Billy Napier's Gators saw significant improvement in 2024, jumping from 5-7 to 8-5 and from 41st in SP+ to 20th. Lagway has some all-or-nothing tendencies to smooth out, and four of last year's top six targets are gone, but he'll have running back Jadan Baugh and four offensive line starters back, and perhaps most importantly, a defense that was dominated by sophomores and juniors last year (but still improved from 60th to 23rd in defensive SP+) returns a solid 12 of 20 players with 200-plus snaps. Napier is somehow pulling off a patient building job at a very impatient school (in a very impatient conference).
Oklahoma (33rd in SP+ in 2024, 10th in returning production in 2025). OU's first season in the SEC was a trial. Per SP+, the Sooners fielded their best defense since 2013, but their worst offense since 1998 doomed the campaign, and they went 6-7 for the second time in Brent Venables' three seasons in charge. Their 2025 defense could be outstanding, returning 11 of 19 guys with 200-plus snaps and adding among the brightest talents from disappointing Florida State (DE Marvin Jones Jr.) and Oklahoma State (LB Kendal Daniels) defenses. The offense, meanwhile, made two huge imports from Washington State: coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer. If Mateer and seven new receiving corps transfers can click -- something that will be far more likely if a vastly more experienced offensive line gets better -- the Sooners could make solid overall improvement. They'll still face a brutal schedule, though.
Auburn (34th in SP+ in 2024, 22nd in returning production in 2025).
Hugh Freeze's Tigers were both more efficient and more explosive than their opponents in 2024, but they self-destructed via red zone miscues and turnovers, and finished 5-7. The Auburn defense must replace 10 of 19 players with 200-plus snaps, but should get help from the addition of two G5 stars: Raion Strader, a cornerback from Miami (Ohio); and Chris Murray, a defensive end from Sam Houston. The main question, however, comes at quarterback, where two flawed transfers -- Stanford's Ashton Daniels and Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold -- will compete for the job of throwing to a potentially dynamite receiving corps led by sophomores Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. The upside is massive, but we'll have to see if last year's implosions have been curbed.
Most likely to regress in 2025
Ole Miss (second in SP+ in 2024, 113th in returning production in 2025). One of the most prevalent complaints about playoff expansion was ostensibly about mulligans -- we'd be handing out too many of them, and the impact of particularly devastating regular-season losses would be dampened too much. Granted, Ohio State's loss to Michigan (and the national title that followed) backed that point up to some degree, but Ole Miss is proof that you can still finish a season with epic regret in the playoff era.
Lane Kiffin's Rebels finished the year second in SP+ and constantly flashed massive upside, but losses to Kentucky (by three points), LSU (in OT) and Florida (by seven) featured terrible breaks and regrettable mistakes, and Ole Miss narrowly missed out on a playoff bid with which it could have done major damage. And now, even with plenty of incoming transfers, the Rebels have to replace their leading passer, rusher and receiver, 67% of their DB snaps, 62% of their O-line snaps and 61% of their D-line snaps. Regret regarding 2024 might rise in Oxford only if there's a setback season in 2025.
Georgia (sixth in SP+ in 2024, 105th in returning production in 2025).
Per SP+, Georgia fielded its worst offense in four years and its worst defense in seven. That sounds worse than it actually was -- the Dawgs were still in the top 10 in offensive, defensive and special teams SP+ -- but this was Kirby Smart's least scary Georgia team in quite a while, and now it will be replacing starting quarterback Carson Beck, three of his top four targets, four of the top six offensive linemen and 12 of 18 defenders with 200-plus snaps. Quarterback Gunner Stockton was solid in Georgia's playoff loss to Notre Dame, and Smart still recruits freshmen better than almost anyone on the planet. But losing a ton of production from your first three-loss team in six years doesn't signify an immediate rebound is coming.
Texas (seventh in SP+ in 2024, 103rd in returning production in 2025).
If you aren't leaning toward ranking Ohio State No. 1 to start the year, you're probably looking at Texas instead. Considering the Longhorns are officially handing the reins to quarterback Arch Manning -- and giving him a loaded RB stable and the best linebacking corps in the country -- it makes sense. But SP+ isn't automatically giving the Horns the benefit of the doubt. They were only seventh in SP+ last season and must replace quarterback Quinn Ewers, four of his top six targets, the top four offensive and defensive linemen and dynamite DBs Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian recruits well and spruced up the defensive line with three transfers, but that's still a lot. If Manning is anything less than otherworldly, Texas could have some ups and downs.
South Carolina (14th in SP+ in 2024, 71st in returning production in 2025).
It's not hard to end up with similar thoughts about South Carolina, though perhaps to a lesser degree, as about Ohio State: Sure, the Gamecocks will have holes to fill, but they're going to have quarterback LaNorris Sellers and defensive end Dylan Stewart, who were two of 2024's best freshmen, and that will fill quite a bit, right? Maybe. But there's still a lot to replace, namely three offensive line starters and nearly every member of the front six not named Stewart. Only six of 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps are back, and while Shane Beamer is liberal with his portal usage, he'll need quite a few hits to replicate 2024's No. 13 finish in defensive SP+. (He'll need a bit more consistency from Sellers too.)
Texas A&M (13th in SP+ in 2024, sixth in returning production in 2025). Mike Elko's first season at A&M was solid. The Aggies improved from 7-6 to 8-5 and from 16th to 13th in SP+. They head into 2025 having handed the QB reins to sophomore-to-be Marcel Reed, and they currently return running backs Amari Daniels and Le'Veon Moss -- who combined for 1,627 yards from scrimmage -- and players who accounted for 60 of 65 starts on the offensive line. The receiving corps and defensive line took solid hits of attrition (that's where Elko spent most of his transfer capital), but everyone's dealing with attrition of some sort. It's hard to move up in the SEC, but the Aggies will have a chance to do so if Reed can keep improving.
Florida (20th in SP+ in 2024, 18th in returning production in 2025). Despite a brutal schedule and the handing of the QB reins to freshman DJ Lagway midseason, Billy Napier's Gators saw significant improvement in 2024, jumping from 5-7 to 8-5 and from 41st in SP+ to 20th. Lagway has some all-or-nothing tendencies to smooth out, and four of last year's top six targets are gone, but he'll have running back Jadan Baugh and four offensive line starters back, and perhaps most importantly, a defense that was dominated by sophomores and juniors last year (but still improved from 60th to 23rd in defensive SP+) returns a solid 12 of 20 players with 200-plus snaps. Napier is somehow pulling off a patient building job at a very impatient school (in a very impatient conference).
Oklahoma (33rd in SP+ in 2024, 10th in returning production in 2025). OU's first season in the SEC was a trial. Per SP+, the Sooners fielded their best defense since 2013, but their worst offense since 1998 doomed the campaign, and they went 6-7 for the second time in Brent Venables' three seasons in charge. Their 2025 defense could be outstanding, returning 11 of 19 guys with 200-plus snaps and adding among the brightest talents from disappointing Florida State (DE Marvin Jones Jr.) and Oklahoma State (LB Kendal Daniels) defenses. The offense, meanwhile, made two huge imports from Washington State: coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer. If Mateer and seven new receiving corps transfers can click -- something that will be far more likely if a vastly more experienced offensive line gets better -- the Sooners could make solid overall improvement. They'll still face a brutal schedule, though.
Auburn (34th in SP+ in 2024, 22nd in returning production in 2025).
Hugh Freeze's Tigers were both more efficient and more explosive than their opponents in 2024, but they self-destructed via red zone miscues and turnovers, and finished 5-7. The Auburn defense must replace 10 of 19 players with 200-plus snaps, but should get help from the addition of two G5 stars: Raion Strader, a cornerback from Miami (Ohio); and Chris Murray, a defensive end from Sam Houston. The main question, however, comes at quarterback, where two flawed transfers -- Stanford's Ashton Daniels and Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold -- will compete for the job of throwing to a potentially dynamite receiving corps led by sophomores Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. The upside is massive, but we'll have to see if last year's implosions have been curbed.
Most likely to regress in 2025
Ole Miss (second in SP+ in 2024, 113th in returning production in 2025). One of the most prevalent complaints about playoff expansion was ostensibly about mulligans -- we'd be handing out too many of them, and the impact of particularly devastating regular-season losses would be dampened too much. Granted, Ohio State's loss to Michigan (and the national title that followed) backed that point up to some degree, but Ole Miss is proof that you can still finish a season with epic regret in the playoff era.
Lane Kiffin's Rebels finished the year second in SP+ and constantly flashed massive upside, but losses to Kentucky (by three points), LSU (in OT) and Florida (by seven) featured terrible breaks and regrettable mistakes, and Ole Miss narrowly missed out on a playoff bid with which it could have done major damage. And now, even with plenty of incoming transfers, the Rebels have to replace their leading passer, rusher and receiver, 67% of their DB snaps, 62% of their O-line snaps and 61% of their D-line snaps. Regret regarding 2024 might rise in Oxford only if there's a setback season in 2025.
Georgia (sixth in SP+ in 2024, 105th in returning production in 2025).
Per SP+, Georgia fielded its worst offense in four years and its worst defense in seven. That sounds worse than it actually was -- the Dawgs were still in the top 10 in offensive, defensive and special teams SP+ -- but this was Kirby Smart's least scary Georgia team in quite a while, and now it will be replacing starting quarterback Carson Beck, three of his top four targets, four of the top six offensive linemen and 12 of 18 defenders with 200-plus snaps. Quarterback Gunner Stockton was solid in Georgia's playoff loss to Notre Dame, and Smart still recruits freshmen better than almost anyone on the planet. But losing a ton of production from your first three-loss team in six years doesn't signify an immediate rebound is coming.
Texas (seventh in SP+ in 2024, 103rd in returning production in 2025).
If you aren't leaning toward ranking Ohio State No. 1 to start the year, you're probably looking at Texas instead. Considering the Longhorns are officially handing the reins to quarterback Arch Manning -- and giving him a loaded RB stable and the best linebacking corps in the country -- it makes sense. But SP+ isn't automatically giving the Horns the benefit of the doubt. They were only seventh in SP+ last season and must replace quarterback Quinn Ewers, four of his top six targets, the top four offensive and defensive linemen and dynamite DBs Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian recruits well and spruced up the defensive line with three transfers, but that's still a lot. If Manning is anything less than otherworldly, Texas could have some ups and downs.
South Carolina (14th in SP+ in 2024, 71st in returning production in 2025).
It's not hard to end up with similar thoughts about South Carolina, though perhaps to a lesser degree, as about Ohio State: Sure, the Gamecocks will have holes to fill, but they're going to have quarterback LaNorris Sellers and defensive end Dylan Stewart, who were two of 2024's best freshmen, and that will fill quite a bit, right? Maybe. But there's still a lot to replace, namely three offensive line starters and nearly every member of the front six not named Stewart. Only six of 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps are back, and while Shane Beamer is liberal with his portal usage, he'll need quite a few hits to replicate 2024's No. 13 finish in defensive SP+. (He'll need a bit more consistency from Sellers too.)
This post was edited on 2/24/25 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 2/24/25 at 4:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Prior Year FEI ranking, returning production, rating at 85% prior year/15% returning
This post was edited on 2/24/25 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 2/24/25 at 6:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Do you have last year's ones? That would help to compare to this current one and see which did well and which fell off in the rankings.
Plus coaches that have been replaced. Mizzou had a DC and DL coach that had to be replaced last season. This year I don't think any coaches have been replaced.
Plus coaches that have been replaced. Mizzou had a DC and DL coach that had to be replaced last season. This year I don't think any coaches have been replaced.
This post was edited on 2/24/25 at 6:56 pm
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