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As it stands today, what's the wisdom in recruiting a QB out of high school?
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:31 pm
I had a discussion about this with a family member. And, I'm starting to think it may not be wise to recruit an unproven QB out of high school aside from the occasional "can't miss QB" (Tua, Trevor L., Bryce U.) b/c there are so many quality QBs who have proven more that are available on the secondary market (transfer portal) every year. What do you think?
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Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:39 pm to Shaft Williams
Depends on the situation.
I'll be extremely disappointed if LSU doesn't sign and keep Elijah Haven in 2027. He's worth a bigtime NIL deal.
Other than that, I'm happy if LSU keeps bringing in transfers like Van Buren or recruits like Nussmeier.
I'll be extremely disappointed if LSU doesn't sign and keep Elijah Haven in 2027. He's worth a bigtime NIL deal.
Other than that, I'm happy if LSU keeps bringing in transfers like Van Buren or recruits like Nussmeier.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:41 pm to Shaft Williams
I am good with what UGA has done.
We haven't been landing the top QB most years, but we're landing a good QB. Those QB's are largely "waiting their turn". That gives us depth that has been in the system for a while that isn't demanding to be played early by either fans or the players themselves.
UGA's QB room right now:
4-star Carson Beck (RS-SR). 5th year at UGA. .9095 rating. #254 overall recruit in his class.
4-star Gunner Stockton (RS-SO). 3rd year at UGA. .9506 rating. #124 overall recruit in his class.
4-star Jaden Rashada (RS-FR). 1st year at UGA (transfer from ASU). .9623 rating. #81 overall recruit in his class.
4-star Ryan Puglisis (FR). 1st year at UGA. .9487 rating. #114 overall recruit in his class.
We seem to have found a bit of a sweet spot where we can keep our guys in the program to wait their turn, but still have pretty talented guys. We may have been able to land more talent... but as you point out it wouldn't stay around. We may be able to bring in better talent through the portal... but that talent would be learning UGA's system, not be in a scenario where they are already at UGA for 3 years when they have to come in due to an injury like Stockton is.
It's different than what the goal was before. But it seems to be working well.
Next year Beck rolls out, Stockton will be in his 4th year, Rashada and Puglisi in their second and we'll add freshman Ryan Montgomery. 4-star, .9431, #108 in his class.
We haven't been landing the top QB most years, but we're landing a good QB. Those QB's are largely "waiting their turn". That gives us depth that has been in the system for a while that isn't demanding to be played early by either fans or the players themselves.
UGA's QB room right now:
4-star Carson Beck (RS-SR). 5th year at UGA. .9095 rating. #254 overall recruit in his class.
4-star Gunner Stockton (RS-SO). 3rd year at UGA. .9506 rating. #124 overall recruit in his class.
4-star Jaden Rashada (RS-FR). 1st year at UGA (transfer from ASU). .9623 rating. #81 overall recruit in his class.
4-star Ryan Puglisis (FR). 1st year at UGA. .9487 rating. #114 overall recruit in his class.
We seem to have found a bit of a sweet spot where we can keep our guys in the program to wait their turn, but still have pretty talented guys. We may have been able to land more talent... but as you point out it wouldn't stay around. We may be able to bring in better talent through the portal... but that talent would be learning UGA's system, not be in a scenario where they are already at UGA for 3 years when they have to come in due to an injury like Stockton is.
It's different than what the goal was before. But it seems to be working well.
Next year Beck rolls out, Stockton will be in his 4th year, Rashada and Puglisi in their second and we'll add freshman Ryan Montgomery. 4-star, .9431, #108 in his class.
This post was edited on 12/22/24 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:42 pm to wadewilson
quote:
Elijah Haven in 2027. He's worth a bigtime NIL deal
no way to know that at this point. Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:47 pm to Shaft Williams
You basically just use them for depth. In reality, 99% of high school QBs should be on the bottom rung of NIL deals. They aren't worth it until maybe their sophomore year.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:55 pm to LegendInMyMind
I may be mistaken, but Erk Russell used to sign a lot of High School quarterbacks because they were usually the best athlete on the team.
Turned them into linebackers/safties/running backs.
Turned them into linebackers/safties/running backs.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:57 pm to Shaft Williams
I don't know man, seems to me you could go wrong either way. Even getting a proven QB transfer portal guy. You may end up with someone who dies not fit your locker room. And possibly not a good fit for your scheme.
Likely you take a can't miss HS guy. And use the portal as a second option. JD5 and Burrow both were no where close to Heisman material before hitting Baton Rouge.
Likely you take a can't miss HS guy. And use the portal as a second option. JD5 and Burrow both were no where close to Heisman material before hitting Baton Rouge.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:58 pm to Aguga
quote:
no way to know that at this point.
That's probably true in most cases, but he's a local Baton Rouge prospect, and people that really follow recruiting say he's the guy.
There have been some big time QB prospects in south Louisiana since Kelly was hired.
Archie Manning. Nobody from that family will ever sign with LSU. Kelly gets a pass here.
Walker Howard. Kelly signed him. He transferred. He's now playing G5 ball.
Eli Holstein. He wasn't signing after Howard did. Maybe we don't sign Howard, we get Holstein, and Holstein is doing better for LSU right now than Nussmeier is, but that's a lot of what ifs.
A lot could happen between now and then, but I don't think we're letting that guy leave Baton Rouge unless somebody pays him 8 figures.
Fun fact: Garrett Nussmeier's little brother is in the 2027 class and is the 3rd ranked QB in that class per 247.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 1:59 pm to jvilardo
quote:
You may end up with someone who dies not fit your locker room.
You use your current players to recruit from the portal.
Weeks and other LSU players have done that recently.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:03 pm to Shaft Williams
OP is right. Portal is the way to go. Look at the proven QBs and go get one.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:04 pm to wadewilson
Haven ain’t the savior you make him out to be. He a good QB but plays bad competition and doesn’t have speed. He’s not a true dual threat. I don’t see his speed changing as he fills out.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:16 pm to Cleary Rebels
quote:
Haven ain’t the savior you make him out to be.
I wouldn't call him a savior, I just think he's a guy you might have to spend a little more to keep. Possibly for optics.
Kinda like Texas did for Colin Simmons, or Michigan for Underwood.
quote:
He a good QB but plays bad competition
Aren't they 7-1A? Sure, Christian Life and Redemptorist are gone, but they still play every good private school in Baton Rouge and their metro competition, Catholic Point Coupee, Farmerville, etc.
quote:
doesn’t have speed. He’s not a true dual threat. I don’t see his speed changing as he fills out.
Relative to who? Jayden Daniels?
If he can read a defense, pass accurately and timely, and have the athleticism of, say, Anthony Jennings, he can do a lot of good at LSU.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:25 pm to jvilardo
Coaches will soon learn that they are a horribly inefficient use of NIL money:
1) Very few HS quarterbacks are ready to play right away. Even among the 5-stars. So you are paying upwards of 7-figures for a player to sit on your bench and produce nothing. This is money that can be used to provide immediate impact talent elsewhere on the field.
2) The recruiting status of these "elite HS quarterbacks" plus the NIL collective pressure for them to start producing actual on-field output means that the coaches who sign them will place themselves under immense pressure to rush these players onto the field, regardless of whether they are ready or have earned it. Look at Texas right now with Ewers basically being told to either go pro or leave because they have 7-figures tied up to Manning and he needs to get on the field or else. These "elite HS QB's" aren't going to sit on the bench for ~2 seasons when they can freely transfer out on a whim, which means that as soon as you sign them and commit a huge amount of NIL money to them you place yourself on the clock of getting them onto the field so they don't get bored and walk out on you.
Let's look at the case-study of Tennessee and Nico: they allegedly gave him ~$8 mill to sign out of HS, which I'm assuming is split into $2 mill/year payments. He has been there for two years, and what has Tennessee paid for to date?
Year 1: He was a backup and produced essentially no value.
Year 2: He started and produced a 70.1 QBR, which is 38th best in the country. This is "good", but nowhere near "elite" performance.
Lets assume that Tenn has paid him $4 mill for these first two seasons. Had they omitted signing him entirely they could have used $2 mill to sign a better transfer portal QB than Joe Milton last season and potentially won an extra 1-2 games, and $2 mill could have likely gotten them a better transfer portal QB than Nico this season. A guy like Cam Ward would have likely chosen Tennessee over Miami from the transfer portal.
Tennessee is paying an upfront cost for Nico's "potential" which should HOPEFULLY materialize for them next season in his 3rd year, but don't forget that he is draft eligible next season. If he plays like an elite QB next season he will leave for the NFL. So even if Tennessee finally gets their money's worth in year 3, they will have essentially paid ~$6 mill to a QB who only produced one elite season. Juxtapose this with a team like Oregon which has not bothered to sign a single "superstar QB" out of HS sign Lanning took over. They brought in Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel from the portal, and those two players have produced 3 straight elite seasons for them. Whatever Oregon paid Nix and Gabriel has clearly outproduced Nico Iamaleava.
1) Very few HS quarterbacks are ready to play right away. Even among the 5-stars. So you are paying upwards of 7-figures for a player to sit on your bench and produce nothing. This is money that can be used to provide immediate impact talent elsewhere on the field.
2) The recruiting status of these "elite HS quarterbacks" plus the NIL collective pressure for them to start producing actual on-field output means that the coaches who sign them will place themselves under immense pressure to rush these players onto the field, regardless of whether they are ready or have earned it. Look at Texas right now with Ewers basically being told to either go pro or leave because they have 7-figures tied up to Manning and he needs to get on the field or else. These "elite HS QB's" aren't going to sit on the bench for ~2 seasons when they can freely transfer out on a whim, which means that as soon as you sign them and commit a huge amount of NIL money to them you place yourself on the clock of getting them onto the field so they don't get bored and walk out on you.
Let's look at the case-study of Tennessee and Nico: they allegedly gave him ~$8 mill to sign out of HS, which I'm assuming is split into $2 mill/year payments. He has been there for two years, and what has Tennessee paid for to date?
Year 1: He was a backup and produced essentially no value.
Year 2: He started and produced a 70.1 QBR, which is 38th best in the country. This is "good", but nowhere near "elite" performance.
Lets assume that Tenn has paid him $4 mill for these first two seasons. Had they omitted signing him entirely they could have used $2 mill to sign a better transfer portal QB than Joe Milton last season and potentially won an extra 1-2 games, and $2 mill could have likely gotten them a better transfer portal QB than Nico this season. A guy like Cam Ward would have likely chosen Tennessee over Miami from the transfer portal.
Tennessee is paying an upfront cost for Nico's "potential" which should HOPEFULLY materialize for them next season in his 3rd year, but don't forget that he is draft eligible next season. If he plays like an elite QB next season he will leave for the NFL. So even if Tennessee finally gets their money's worth in year 3, they will have essentially paid ~$6 mill to a QB who only produced one elite season. Juxtapose this with a team like Oregon which has not bothered to sign a single "superstar QB" out of HS sign Lanning took over. They brought in Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel from the portal, and those two players have produced 3 straight elite seasons for them. Whatever Oregon paid Nix and Gabriel has clearly outproduced Nico Iamaleava.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:30 pm to metafour
quote:
Coaches will soon learn that they are a horribly inefficient use of NIL money:
1) Very few HS quarterbacks are ready to play right away. Even among the 5-stars. So you are paying upwards of 7-figures for a player to sit on your bench and produce nothing. This is money that can be used to provide immediate impact talent elsewhere on the field.
2) The recruiting status of these "elite HS quarterbacks" plus the NIL collective pressure for them to start producing actual on-field output means that the coaches who sign them will place themselves under immense pressure to rush these players onto the field, regardless of whether they are ready or have earned it. Look at Texas right now with Ewers basically being told to either go pro or leave because they have 7-figures tied up to Manning and he needs to get on the field or else. These "elite HS QB's" aren't going to sit on the bench for ~2 seasons when they can freely transfer out on a whim, which means that as soon as you sign them and commit a huge amount of NIL money to them you place yourself on the clock of getting them onto the field so they don't get bored and walk out on you.
Let's look at the case-study of Tennessee and Nico: they allegedly gave him ~$8 mill to sign out of HS, which I'm assuming is split into $2 mill/year payments. He has been there for two years, and what has Tennessee paid for to date?
Year 1: He was a backup and produced essentially no value.
Year 2: He started and produced a 70.1 QBR, which is 38th best in the country. This is "good", but nowhere near "elite" performance.
Lets assume that Tenn has paid him $4 mill for these first two seasons. Had they omitted signing him entirely they could have used $2 mill to sign a better transfer portal QB than Joe Milton last season and potentially won an extra 1-2 games, and $2 mill could have likely gotten them a better transfer portal QB than Nico this season. A guy like Cam Ward would have likely chosen Tennessee over Miami from the transfer portal.
Tennessee is paying an upfront cost for Nico's "potential" which should HOPEFULLY materialize for them next season in his 3rd year, but don't forget that he is draft eligible next season. If he plays like an elite QB next season he will leave for the NFL. So even if Tennessee finally gets their money's worth in year 3, they will have essentially paid ~$6 mill to a QB who only produced one elite season. Juxtapose this with a team like Oregon which has not bothered to sign a single "superstar QB" out of HS sign Lanning took over. They brought in Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel from the portal, and those two players have produced 3 straight elite seasons for them. Whatever Oregon paid Nix and Gabriel has clearly outproduced Nico Iamaleava.
Very well said. I agree completely.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:42 pm to Shaft Williams
I rather rely on a homegrown QB, with high potential, then take a transfer that is serviceable. We can win 6 to 8 games with a freshman, we don’t need some $4M senior who might win 8 games. A transfer QB would need to be elite at a G5 school level like the Tulane or Liberty QBs now, or gifted like Cam Ward was athletically, with a good arm last year.
We had a weird year when we took Trevor Knight from OU to serve as a bridge QB until we could get a talented HS QB onboard. It’s a waste to take a portal QB unless they are a guaranteed 10 win QB vs you can get to a 8-9 win season with a true freshman/redshirt freshman these days.
We had a weird year when we took Trevor Knight from OU to serve as a bridge QB until we could get a talented HS QB onboard. It’s a waste to take a portal QB unless they are a guaranteed 10 win QB vs you can get to a 8-9 win season with a true freshman/redshirt freshman these days.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:49 pm to metafour
quote:
Coaches will soon learn that they are a horribly inefficient use of NIL money:
1) Very few HS quarterbacks are ready to play right away. Even among the 5-stars. So you are paying upwards of 7-figures for a player to sit on your bench and produce nothing. This is money that can be used to provide immediate impact talent elsewhere on the field.
2) The recruiting status of these "elite HS quarterbacks" plus the NIL collective pressure for them to start producing actual on-field output means that the coaches who sign them will place themselves under immense pressure to rush these players onto the field, regardless of whether they are ready or have earned it. Look at Texas right now with Ewers basically being told to either go pro or leave because they have 7-figures tied up to Manning and he needs to get on the field or else. These "elite HS QB's" aren't going to sit on the bench for ~2 seasons when they can freely transfer out on a whim, which means that as soon as you sign them and commit a huge amount of NIL money to them you place yourself on the clock of getting them onto the field so they don't get bored and walk out on you.
Let's look at the case-study of Tennessee and Nico: they allegedly gave him ~$8 mill to sign out of HS, which I'm assuming is split into $2 mill/year payments. He has been there for two years, and what has Tennessee paid for to date?
Year 1: He was a backup and produced essentially no value.
Year 2: He started and produced a 70.1 QBR, which is 38th best in the country. This is "good", but nowhere near "elite" performance.
Lets assume that Tenn has paid him $4 mill for these first two seasons. Had they omitted signing him entirely they could have used $2 mill to sign a better transfer portal QB than Joe Milton last season and potentially won an extra 1-2 games, and $2 mill could have likely gotten them a better transfer portal QB than Nico this season. A guy like Cam Ward would have likely chosen Tennessee over Miami from the transfer portal.
Tennessee is paying an upfront cost for Nico's "potential" which should HOPEFULLY materialize for them next season in his 3rd year, but don't forget that he is draft eligible next season. If he plays like an elite QB next season he will leave for the NFL. So even if Tennessee finally gets their money's worth in year 3, they will have essentially paid ~$6 mill to a QB who only produced one elite season. Juxtapose this with a team like Oregon which has not bothered to sign a single "superstar QB" out of HS sign Lanning took over. They brought in Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel from the portal, and those two players have produced 3 straight elite seasons for them. Whatever Oregon paid Nix and Gabriel has clearly outproduced Nico Iamaleava.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:52 pm to Shaft Williams
Using Texas as an example, we have a QB (Ewers) who is in the third year of a coach’s system. Said player has developed under said coach’s system. For example, I read in an article today that the two long TD runs yesterday were based on QB audibles which were based on developing with said coach over those 3 years.
Of course these days this type of situation looks more like an anomaly than the norm. But in answer to your question, at least on paper this would be a potential benefit, development through longevity and consistency.
Obviously it’s the Wild West right now, but my hope is that some sort of contractual arrangement will be instituted, where the value of the NIL deal is tied to the longevity of the commitment (ie player can sign a 1, 2, 3, 4 year deal). I think this would improve the portal situation.
Of course these days this type of situation looks more like an anomaly than the norm. But in answer to your question, at least on paper this would be a potential benefit, development through longevity and consistency.
Obviously it’s the Wild West right now, but my hope is that some sort of contractual arrangement will be instituted, where the value of the NIL deal is tied to the longevity of the commitment (ie player can sign a 1, 2, 3, 4 year deal). I think this would improve the portal situation.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:54 pm to JayAg
quote:
I rather rely on a homegrown QB, with high potential, then take a transfer that is serviceable. We can win 6 to 8 games with a freshman, we don’t need some $4M senior who might win 8 games. A transfer QB would need to be elite at a G5 school level like the Tulane or Liberty QBs now, or gifted like Cam Ward was athletically, with a good arm last year.
We had a weird year when we took Trevor Knight from OU to serve as a bridge QB until we could get a talented HS QB onboard. It’s a waste to take a portal QB unless they are a guaranteed 10 win QB vs you can get to a 8-9 win season with a true freshman/redshirt freshman these days.
I wasn't really talking about serviceable portal QBs. Rather, I'm talking about difference making portal QBs. For instance, with the money Auburn has paid out to Jackson Arnold (who has 2 or 3 seasons of eligibility left) and incoming 5 star freshman QB Deuce Knight how will that work? And, Auburn didn't bring Arnold in to be serviceable. It seems to me with that scenario money can't help but to be wasted. I understand why someone like Lane Kiffin is fine with getting someone like Deuce at a later time.
This post was edited on 12/22/24 at 2:56 pm
Posted on 12/22/24 at 2:56 pm to Shaft Williams
I guess at a minimum you should continue to recruit them to build relationships, not only the QBs, but also high school coaches and 7v7 organizers. A lot of talent typically surrounds the elite QBs, and it’s often pooled in specific areas.
How hard you recruit them is another thing. Then there’s always plenty of the under the radar kids that coaches identify and want to develop.
How hard you recruit them is another thing. Then there’s always plenty of the under the radar kids that coaches identify and want to develop.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 3:02 pm to Shaft Williams
On the flip side if I’m a qb I’d go somewhere I could be the starter day 1. Why sit on the bench somewhere when you could be getting all the reps and game action. Can easily transfer when you’re ready for the big show.
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