This thing is getting scary

It's been since the start. Some people just refused to acknowledge it.

quote:

---

How is this possible if you don't have it?

---

How would you know? The incubation phase can be as long as 14 days and asymptomatic carriers do exist.

quote:

---

I'm amazed at how many people are still posting pics of them at the beach on vacation,

---

You would be shocked how many have swarmed down there because kids are out and parents are trying to take them somewhere. My family owns a place in Gulf Shores. We have it rented out currently and only one person has canceled so far. The place is pretty much booked all the way till September.

quote:

---

It's not what anyone wants but at this point its what needs to be done.

---

Yeah, I understand how it can be very frustrating to have to work from home and watch multiple kids but they are just going to have to fight through that. Parents are losing their minds and its only the 2nd week.

Italy is on track to surpass China's number of total deaths by tomorrow at the latest. Wild

quote:

---

Italy is on track to surpass China's number of total deaths by tomorrow at the latest. Wild

---

Yep. Of course China's numbers are likely fictitious and they are likely 5x or more what they actually reported.

Here's the truly scary thing.... most countries are still very early into this crisis. Italy is running anywhere from 10-20 days ahead of most other countries.

If you go back to when each country hit 10 cumulative deaths from COVID-19, and then extrapolate from there, you see how bad things are on pace to be in a few days when other countries get as far into it as Italy is now.

It has been 12 days since Spain and France both saw their 10th fatality from the virus.... Here are how many deaths each country had 12 days after hitting their 10th death...

Total Fatalities 12 days after hitting their 10th total fatality:

Italy: 233
France: 264
Spain: 638

You'll notice both France and Spain are worse off at this point than Italy was. They can look to Italy to see what they are likely going to be dealing with in 10 days. Now 23 days after seeing their 10th fatality, Italy has 2,978 total deaths.... they've seen 368, 349, 345, and 475 daily fatalities the last four days, respectively.

France will likely be seeing those same numbers in 10 days, and I cannot imagine how bad things are going to be in Spain 10 days from now.... they are on pace to possibly be seeing 700 daily fatalities just 10 days from now.

The UK and Netherlands are even further behind. They are just 7 and 6 days out from seeing their 10th fatality, but both are also on a pace worse than Italy.

Seven days after seeing its 10th fatality, Italy had seen 52.... the UK now has 104 fatalities just 7 days past that benchmark. And the crazy thing is, many students in the UK are still in school. They are not taking this seriously enough, and I'm afraid they are going to be the new epicenter in just 2 weeks.

Netherlands is just 6 days removed from its 10th fatality.... and now has 58 total. At the same time past its 10th fatality, Italy had seen just 41. So they too are tracking worse.

Of course things could take turn, but unfortunately this virus has shown the math is unlikely to be stopped.... which is why the US is trying to get ahead of it.

Thankfully, we're tracking much better than any of the above countries. Let's hope it stays that way.

Here's where various countries stood 12 days after seeing their 10th fatality...

Cumulative Fatalities, 12 days out from seeing the 10th total fatality:

638- Spain (now 12 days out at 638 deaths)
264- France (now 12 days out at 264 deaths)
233- Italy (now 23 days out at 2,978 deaths)
124- Iran (now 24 days out at 1,135 deaths)
68- United States (now 15 days out at 135+ deaths)
48- South Korea (now 23 days out at 84 deaths)

Those are the only countries outside of China that have logged 10 total fatalities and are at least 12 days out from that benchmark.

South Korea has been hailed as the model country in terms of handling the crisis. They seem to be on the mend, with total active cases falling for the past 7 days upon reaching their peak. They only have 84 total fatalities.

Thankfully, the USA is a little closer to South Korea than we are to those other countries at this point. Imposing the travel ban against China 6 weeks ago was huge, and I think closing the schools and encouraging self-isolation beginning over the weekend was a crucial step. Had we waited just a few more days, we'd probably be a lot worse off.

The UK, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are about a week behind the USA so its too early to tell with them, but they are so far pacing themselves ahead of Italy which is not a good sign for them.

The UK I'm afraid is in for a rough time. They still have most of their kids in school and they are still operating flights to all over the world.

In 2 weeks, we'll be able to compare the US to the UK and it will be a case study on why all these people who were supposedly "overreacting" the past few days were right all along. The UK is not headed in a good direction. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Of course within an hour of typing this, the daily death total in the US hit 41 and we still have several hours left in the day. That's up from 23 fatalities yesterday. That's absolutely not good.

Again, we're still on a better track than Italy at this time, but if we have another increase tomorrow like we did today, things are going to go south quick.

quote:

---

Of course within an hour of typing this, the daily death total in the US hit 41 and we still have several hours left in the day. That's up from 23 fatalities yesterday. That's absolutely not good.

---

My work has been slammed, so I haven't seen much news. Are most of these deaths at risk elderly people?

quote:

---

Imposing the travel ban against China 6 weeks ago was huge,

---

yep

Thanks Mr President!