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re: OT: Corona Panic 2020
Posted on 4/7/20 at 2:03 pm to deeprig9
Posted on 4/7/20 at 2:03 pm to deeprig9
quote:
I don't want to have to shut this whole thing down.
Okay - back to Coronavirus.
Notable: Original statements a week and a half ago announced at White House presser and blasted all over by the media (which is surely enjoying the non-stop viewing): 150,000 - 200,000 American deaths with social distancing and economy shutting down; up to 2 million if we were to do nothing.
3 days ago, projection of US deaths: 111,000
Yesterday: downgraded to 93,521
Today: downgraded to 81,766
Okay...so this is being credited to much more and better data that's coming in...and of course they will say it's because the social distancing is working.
But when does someone start to ask if maybe the initial doomsday models were extremely overblown or even biased to inspire the fear necessary to get the social distancing going in the first place?
Where do the curves cross? Let's say we wind up with 60,000 US deaths.... Will that have justified the economic damage and TRILLIONS in additional federal debt on top of what is already a record deficit?
Not to minimize death but this is reminding me of the hurricane that was supposed to hit Florida as a Category 5 a few years back...and wound up a Cat 2 by landfall.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 2:04 pm
3
Posted on 4/7/20 at 2:18 pm to Lucius Clay
Information from the White House must can't be trusted. I hope that deaths are held under 100,000 but don't count on it. We still aren't coming close to testing enough to know where we stand.
I alone can do it has morphed into I take no responsibility at all.
I alone can do it has morphed into I take no responsibility at all.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 3:08 pm to Lucius Clay
quote:
But when does someone start to ask if maybe the initial doomsday models were extremely overblown or even biased to inspire the fear necessary to get the social distancing going in the first place?
That's actually a very good question. In fairness, it is all guess work., though. We have never seen this particular disease before. I do believe in most simulations things tend to be set a t a worse case scenario. They would prefer to overshoot their guesstimations, than to underestimate it. Just a guess, though.
quote:Another great question that people can easily argue against. I mean, people will always argue, but if I had to guess, the argument would be, "If we did not take the necessary steps that we took, it would have been much, much worse!"
Where do the curves cross? Let's say we wind up with 60,000 US deaths.... Will that have justified the economic damage and TRILLIONS in additional federal debt on top of what is already a record deficit?
But...who knows, really?
quote:Or the many, many times we have told a tremendous snow storm was approaching us, and everybody went out and bought up all the milk and bread in the stores....only this time they are buying toilet paper?
Not to minimize death but this is reminding me of the hurricane that was supposed to hit Florida as a Category 5 a few years back...and wound up a Cat 2 by landfall.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:10 am to Lucius Clay
quote:
But when does someone start to ask if maybe the initial doomsday models were extremely overblown or even biased to inspire the fear necessary to get the social distancing going in the first place?
Hey Lucius! You asked an excellent question a few pages back and I cm across a pretty good article from "The Atlantic" about the modelers they use, and why they are generally wrong. It made sense. It doesn't try to place blame or point fingers, it is just plain old good reporting. Rare these days.
Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models That’s not what they’re for.
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