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re: Article: "Perception of Bielema, Malzahn different in year 4 "
Posted on 6/28/16 at 11:45 am to swinetime
Posted on 6/28/16 at 11:45 am to swinetime
quote:
I think the thought is, one is building a team and on the rise while the other is falling
I think most people are overstating these swings.
Is Arkansas really "rising" ?
The so called "rise" that the Hogs experienced in 2015 included losses to Toledo and Texas Tech among others. Of Arkansas' five losses, four came against teams that finished outside the Top 25.
Of Arkansas' seven FCS wins, four came against teams with at least six losses. I don't think I'm quite prepared to say this program is in the midst of a rise. Bert's proponents want to focus only on the wins over Ole Miss and LSU... but they fail to balance those with the losses to Toledo, Texas Tech, etc.
The truth is that Arkansas was a fluke play away from losing to Ole Miss and a play away from losing to Auburn at home. Had just two plays gone differently, Arkansas would have been 5-7 and sitting at home during bowl season. Sure there were some close losses (Texas A&M, Toledo, etc.), but if Bert's team were truly "on the rise" I don't think there would be so many close games against very mediocre competition.
Is Auburn really falling?
Any HC who wins the SEC and play for a National Title in his first year at a school has made it impossible for him not to fall. Yes, Auburn went 7-6 in his third season. But despite absolutely dreadful Quarterback play, Auburn was pretty competitive in every game with the exception of the LSU game.
Four of Auburn's six losses were by 8 points or less.... the only two that weren't were against LSU (blowout) and Alabama... and even in that game, Alabama was up 9 until they scored a TD with 26 seconds left in the game.
My point is that even with the absolute worst QB play in the league, Gus' team was competitive in each game (except for LSU). If Auburn gets even marginal better play from their QB this year, you could be looking at a 9 or 10 win team.
My point in all this is I think its a bit early to make comparisons like this. Gus has BY FAR a better resume at Auburn than Bert does at Arkansas.
If Arkansas gets to 10 wins this season, and if Auburn only wins 6 games... then yes, this article has some truth.
This post was edited on 6/28/16 at 11:46 am
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Posted on 6/28/16 at 11:50 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Of Arkansas' seven FCS wins, four came against teams with at least six losses. I don't think I'm quite prepared to say this program is in the midst of a rise. Bert's proponents want to focus only on the wins over Ole Miss and LSU... but they fail to balance those with the losses to Toledo, Texas Tech, etc.
The truth is that Arkansas was a fluke play away from losing to Ole Miss and a play away from losing to Auburn at home. Had just two plays gone differently, Arkansas would have been 5-7 and sitting at home during bowl season. Sure there were some close losses (Texas A&M, Toledo, etc.), but if Bert's team were truly "on the rise" I don't think there would be so many close games against very mediocre competition.
This is a fair breakdown but how you finish the season is always going to look better than how you started. You also forgot that we blew the Miss. St. game with a fg at the end. You have 3 games that we could have/should have won and maybe make the case for two that we had some favorable luck, Ole Miss for sure and a little with Auburn.
Arkansas really just needs to get 9 wins to continue the "on the rise" thought.
This post was edited on 6/28/16 at 11:53 am
Posted on 6/28/16 at 11:53 am to BHMKyle
quote:
BHMKyle
Another Arkansas thread you just couldn't resist posting in. Not surprisingly your post takes an anti-Arkansas approach.
Can you tell me where the Arkansas fan touched you?
Posted on 6/28/16 at 11:59 am to BHMKyle
Excellent break down, and I love the fact you use actual stats unlike the OP. Gus still has some issues to correct, most notely the lack of talent on D from the 2012 recruiting class. And like you said, marginal QB play is a must. This year might look very strange for a Gus lead team. The D has a chance to be really good, with a run, clock controlled offense. For whatever reason, he has moved away from the HUNO offense the past few years.
Posted on 6/28/16 at 12:00 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Four of Auburn's six losses were by 8 points or less....
Why didn't you mention the close wins? You did that in the Arkansas breakdown. Seems a little unfair.
Posted on 6/28/16 at 12:13 pm to BHMKyle
quote:Interesting summation.
I think most people are overstating these swings.
Is Arkansas really "rising" ?
The so called "rise" that the Hogs experienced in 2015 included losses to Toledo and Texas Tech among others. Of Arkansas' five losses, four came against teams that finished outside the Top 25.
Of Arkansas' seven FCS wins, four came against teams with at least six losses. I don't think I'm quite prepared to say this program is in the midst of a rise. Bert's proponents want to focus only on the wins over Ole Miss and LSU... but they fail to balance those with the losses to Toledo, Texas Tech, etc.
The truth is that Arkansas was a fluke play away from losing to Ole Miss and a play away from losing to Auburn at home. Had just two plays gone differently, Arkansas would have been 5-7 and sitting at home during bowl season. Sure there were some close losses (Texas A&M, Toledo, etc.), but if Bert's team were truly "on the rise" I don't think there would be so many close games against very mediocre competition.
Is Auburn really falling?
Any HC who wins the SEC and play for a National Title in his first year at a school has made it impossible for him not to fall. Yes, Auburn went 7-6 in his third season. But despite absolutely dreadful Quarterback play, Auburn was pretty competitive in every game with the exception of the LSU game.
Four of Auburn's six losses were by 8 points or less.... the only two that weren't were against LSU (blowout) and Alabama... and even in that game, Alabama was up 9 until they scored a TD with 26 seconds left in the game.
My point is that even with the absolute worst QB play in the league, Gus' team was competitive in each game (except for LSU). If Auburn gets even marginal better play from their QB this year, you could be looking at a 9 or 10 win team.
My point in all this is I think its a bit early to make comparisons like this. Gus has BY FAR a better resume at Auburn than Bert does at Arkansas.
If Arkansas gets to 10 wins this season, and if Auburn only wins 6 games... then yes, this article has some truth.
While Arky was a fluke play away from losing to OM, Auburn went to OT with JaxState. And we agree the Auburn/Arky game could have gone either way in a 4OT game it's hard to tell what will happen. But AU also has a close game with Kentucky last year that went down to the wire.
Let's face it, Auburn went in decline to end the '14 season, I'm sure there are tons of excuses but they lost 4 of their last 5 games (with Nick Marshal at QB.)
I don't think either program/head coach can be judged right now. With the Asst coaching carousel these two guys have been on in their short tenure, it's unfair to judge.
IMHO Auburn should NEVER finish last in the division - that does not lead to a positive perception.
Posted on 6/28/16 at 3:13 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
The truth is that Arkansas was a fluke play away from losing to Ole Miss and a play away from losing to Auburn at home. Had just two plays gone differently, Arkansas would have been 5-7 and sitting at home during bowl season. Sure there were some close losses (Texas A&M, Toledo, etc.), but if Bert's team were truly "on the rise" I don't think there would be so many close games against very mediocre competition.
quote:
Four of Auburn's six losses were by 8 points or less.... the only two that weren't were against LSU (blowout) and Alabama... and even in that game, Alabama was up 9 until they scored a TD with 26 seconds left in the game.
So.... you're telling us that close losses are more impressive than close wins? Interesting concept.
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