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re: StatTiger's A&M projections
Posted on 10/16/13 at 11:56 pm to smuphy72
Posted on 10/16/13 at 11:56 pm to smuphy72
quote:
I'm banned too. :( I don't even know what I did.
frick that place. I have zero desire to sign up for a forum where they moderate it stricter than a Kim Jong il propaganda thread on The Day of the Shining Star. 
1
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:03 am to rangers911
quote:Stats are cut and dry facts. The context in which he uses them are slightly biased though. Normally he is pretty good.
Those stats are typically very accurate.
This post was edited on 10/17/13 at 12:05 am
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:04 am to AUsteriskPride
quote:
frick that place. I have zero desire to sign up for a forum where they moderate it stricter than a Kim Jong il propaganda thread on The Day of the Shining Star.
This really is the only quality Auburn board left. Kinda sad.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:05 am to The Nino
quote:
Stats are cut and dry facts. The context in which he uses them are slightly biased though. Normally he is pretty good.
Stats are lies 99% of the time.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:07 am to Weagle25
89.3% of the time I don't read your posts 
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:08 am to The Nino
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:10 am to Weagle25
Would it make you feel better if I told you the other 10.7% I bookmark your posts?
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:12 am to The Nino
quote:
Would it make you feel better if I told you the other 10.7% I bookmark your posts?
1% better.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:17 am to Weagle25
quote:
Stats are lies 99% of the time.
Stats are never lies, they're a mathematical certainty. Now contextually, they can be used deceptively when the human element adds ulterior motives.
If I say flying is dangerous because over 200 people die on average in plane crashes, I'm skewing the data for more impact. But when spread out, that same date can represent you have a 1 in 724,000 chance of dying in a plane crash. Neither are lies, they just accomplish a different means to represent the human element.
With that said, stats should always be questioned.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:20 am to AUsteriskPride
quote:
Stats are never lies, they're a mathematical certainty. Now contextually, they can be used deceptively when the human element adds ulterior motives.
Yes I know. It was more of a joke. My stats teacher in High School made damn sure I knew what to think about stats.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:23 am to Weagle25
quote:
Yes I know. It was more of a joke. My stats teacher in High School made damn sure I knew what to think about stats.
We didn't have stats in high school. I took business stats last semester and it ended up being my hardest class. I'm not a fan. Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:25 am to AUsteriskPride
quote:
We didn't have stats in high school. I took business stats last semester and it ended up being my hardest class. I'm not a fan.
Took it senior year. Mine was an AP course so the teacher was awesome. He gave us candy almost everyday to give us some data to work with
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:46 am to rangers911
quote:
Geneschin
Those stats are typically very accurate.
I am not saying that the raw numbers he refers to is accurate just some of the conclusions when he combines some stats. For your average guy (Columbus PD officer I heard) he is really good
He just doesn't have a background in regression statistics from what I have read from him. There are combinations of stats that don't really work and aren't the most accurate way to depict things
Such as combining his predicted score models
Posted on 10/17/13 at 12:51 am to blzr
quote:
Error cause I'm banned :( they need to let the grudge go.
I would say VPN, but AUF ain't worth it.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 3:01 am to GenesChin
quote:It's actually very sound in the score part. His projected Ole Miss Final was 27-22 Auburn, only 3 points off. For 1 set he takes the TAMU scoring average and multiplies it by 1 - the % below what the Auburn D is giving up teams since AU gives up less than teams' averages to get 1 TAMU value. Then he multiplies TAMU's average score given up on D by 1 + the % AU's O is scoring over the team averages given up by AU opponents since AU is scoring more than their opponents allow. That gives you 1 Auburn value and completes the first set. For the second set take AU scoring average and multiply it by 1 + the % above what the TAMU D is giving up teams since TAMU gives up more than teams' averages to get the next AU value. Then he multiplies AU's average score given up on D by 1 + the % TAMU's O is scoring over the team averages given up by TAMU opponents since TAMU is scoring more than their opponents allow to get the next TAMU value. add the same team values and divide by 2 to get the projected score for each team.
Such as combining his predicted score models
Posted on 10/17/13 at 3:05 am to smuphy72
quote:I seriously doubt you were banned. Your profile was just probably not converted correctly when the merger happened. That happened to many profiles.
I'm banned too. :( I don't even know what I did.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 4:57 pm to weagle99
quote:
Not since 1996...UGA 4 OT game
quote:
I was there.
So was I. I had a date that night and the game kept going and going and going.
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