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Vanderbilt @ Alabama - SECN 6 CST

Posted on 1/21/25 at 9:19 am
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
78727 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 9:19 am
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
27760 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 9:21 am to
National Title here we come!
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
27760 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 9:22 am to
Rebound and play good defense and nobody can beat us
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104408 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 9:24 am to
Vandy/Alabama will all come down to how Alabama responds to Vandy's defensive pressure.

Vandy is #8 in turnover rate defense. Alabama is #133 in turnover rate (but has at times been much worse vs certain types of turnover creating defenses).

On the flip side, because of their turnover hunting, Vandy is #220 in free throw rate defense (they give up a ton of free throws) and #265 in 3PT% against (they give up a lot of good looks from 3). Alabama is #22 in free throw rate and while they are only #227 in 3PT% they've been better lately and have been much better in games where they are consistently getting open looks off kick outs.

If Alabama is turning it over and is sloppy early, could be a good one. If Alabama controls Vandy's pressure, could get ugly.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
65271 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 10:03 am to
Alabama at no point needs to assume they're going to win because they're supposed to win.
That's how we sloppily lost to Ole Miss.
Vanderbilt is the same team that just beat Tennessee
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
11538 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 10:40 am to
quote:

Vandy/Alabama will all come down to how Alabama responds to Vandy's defensive pressure.

Vandy is #8 in turnover rate defense. Alabama is #133 in turnover rate (but has at times been much worse vs certain types of turnover creating defenses).
Important to note that Vandy doesn't turn teams over the same way Ole Miss does. Beard schemed us and had guys jumping passing lanes all night, to the point where we were seeing ghosts and being super tentative with the ball in the second half. Vandy, on the other hand, typically gets turnovers by being super handsy; they do a lot of swatting at the ball. That's easier to prepare for (and also why they rack up a lot of fouls).

If we start our normal 5, Nelson needs to be careful because he is super prone to getting the ball poked away and he'll be guarded by a smaller, quicker guy since Vandy isn't very big.

Tonight would be a good night to get a home whistle (I know, I know, but it snowed in New Orleans today so anything is possible).
This post was edited on 1/21/25 at 10:43 am
Posted by GoodTalkRuss
Member since Dec 2019
777 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 10:56 am to
quote:

If we start our normal 5, Nelson needs to be careful because he is super prone to getting the ball poked away and he'll be guarded by a smaller, quicker guy since Vandy isn't very big.


I liked the version of Nelson we saw last game (of course scoring 25 and 11 has that effect). There wasn't a lot of secondary dribbling going on, he recognized mismatches and went straight downhill. If it wasn't there, the ball kept rotating. For my money, Jarin had his best game of the season against Kentucky because he consistently threatened them on the dribble and the floor just opened up. UK is pretty marginal defensively, but there were areas where I thought guys tested themselves and really made some big strides.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104408 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 11:29 am to
quote:


quote:
Vandy/Alabama will all come down to how Alabama responds to Vandy's defensive pressure.

Vandy is #8 in turnover rate defense. Alabama is #133 in turnover rate (but has at times been much worse vs certain types of turnover creating defenses).
Important to note that Vandy doesn't turn teams over the same way Ole Miss does. Beard schemed us and had guys jumping passing lanes all night, to the point where we were seeing ghosts and being super tentative with the ball in the second half. Vandy, on the other hand, typically gets turnovers by being super handsy; they do a lot of swatting at the ball. That's easier to prepare for (and also why they rack up a lot of fouls).



Bingo - and that is not the style that we typically struggle with in terms of turning it over. Honestly, and I'm sure I will regret this after 7 minutes of game action, but this feels like a great opportunity for an old timey Nate Oats ambush special where we just beat the absolute dog shite out of a good, not great team for 30 minutes and then coast to a 112-76 victory.

Their defensive approach, especially with good but not elite athletes, is the type that we eat up by getting fouled, getting a lot of open 3s, getting easy dunks at the rim. It's also helpful that Vanderbilt has a reputation at this point and has been called pretty consistently defensively in SEC play (+40% FT rate defense in 5 of their 6 games). But like I said, I'm sure we'll start 1/16 from 3 and have 5 dumbass turnovers in the first 12 minutes.

So in conclusion, Vandy's defense
- gives up lots of good looks from 3, #268 3pt% against nationally overall
- is below average in defensive rebounding (giving up 31%+ off reb rate against in the last 4 games), #129 nationally overall
- fouls a lot (40%+ FT rate against in 5 of 6 conference games), #221 nationally overall

Alabama's offense
- shoots kick out 3s well (it's the others that are issues)
- has an off reb rate > 35% in 7 of our last 9 games, #18 nationally overall
- gets fouled a lot (50%+ FT rate in 3 straight games), #22 nationally overall


Make 35-40% of open kick out 3s. Make 75%+ free throws. Run our offense. No stupid turnovers like we had early in the year (we've done much better at that since the Vegas tournament). We'll score and score a lot.
This post was edited on 1/21/25 at 11:38 am
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
11538 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 11:40 am to
quote:

Make 35-40% of open kick out 3s. Make 75%+ free throws. Run our offense. No stupid turnovers like we had early in the year (we've done much better at that since the Vegas tournament). We'll score and score a lot.
Agree with all this. We have some really crafty ballhandlers who I think won't be bothered much with that kind of defense (Sears, Philon, Holloway). Sears may shoot 20 FTs.
Posted by dirtsandwich
AL
Member since May 2016
5706 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 11:58 am to
RTR
Posted by passthetylenol
Alabama
Member since Dec 2020
308 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 12:16 pm to
Bama - 84
Dores - 76
There will some frustration in this one. Vandy will get some easy baskets and we will turn the ball over more than we should, but the better team usually wins. I hope I am wrong and we hang 105 on them : )
RTR
Posted by mrbroker
Sylacauga Alabama
Member since Jul 2011
17043 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 12:40 pm to
We turn the ball over consistently in double digits. This is not new news.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104408 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 12:46 pm to
quote:


We turn the ball over consistently in double digits. This is not new news.


We've had 3 ugly turnover games this season where our TO rate was > 25%
- Rutgers (completely self inflicted)
- Kent State (sloppy, mostly self inflicted, Kent is a solid defensive team #41 nationally that runs Houston's defense)
- Ole Miss (schemed into turnovers based on schematics, not because of ball pressure)

Vandy defends similar to how A&M does (and Missouri) - aggressive, prone to fouling and giving up good looks because of aggression. We handled A&M's pressure pretty well and we got a ton of good looks and drew a ton of fouls.


Should also note Vandy hasn't really turned people over in conference nearly at the same rate they turned over bad OOC opponents. They are high in average because of 1 game against Carolina (who stinks).

@ LSU - 22.0%
vs State - 16.2%
@ Mizzou - 21.2%
vs Carolina - 35.5%
vs Tennessee - 17.3%
This post was edited on 1/21/25 at 12:49 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104408 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 12:50 pm to
vs 3 Top 50 opponents (State, @ Mizzou, Tennessee)

- #118 defense
- #75 TO rate def
- #97 def reb rate
- #242 free throw rate def
- #265 3PT% against
- 1.14 pts per possession allowed
This post was edited on 1/21/25 at 12:52 pm
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
27760 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 1:05 pm to
So the New Jerseys are just a Crimson Version of Last years Jersey. BUT WHEN ARE WE GONNA WEAR OUR WHITE ONES AGAIN?
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
25399 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

So the New Jerseys are just a Crimson Version of Last years Jersey. BUT WHEN ARE WE GONNA WEAR OUR WHITE ONES AGAIN?

Anthony Greys or bust
Posted by Alabama_Fan
The Road Less Traveled
Member since Sep 2020
14190 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 1:31 pm to
Posted by GoodTalkRuss
Member since Dec 2019
777 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

Bama - 84
Dores - 76
There will some frustration in this one. Vandy will get some easy baskets and we will turn the ball over more than we should, but the better team usually wins.


I would prefer to not have to drink that much on a Tuesday night.
Posted by Alabama_Fan
The Road Less Traveled
Member since Sep 2020
14190 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 1:33 pm to
Someone posted that these aren’t until the LSU game


quote:

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Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
65271 posts
Posted on 1/21/25 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

Someone posted that these aren’t until the LSU game

So, why post that today? Easily could just release the tweet tomorrow
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