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Why Ole Miss will get the last at large slot
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:58 pm
As the 11-12 seed, there are 2 criteria that matter more than anything: can you beat top 15 (playoff caliber) teams consistently and can you do it on the road in a first round game. Close games are not a predictor of consistency, so let’s look at convincing wins that fit those criteria.
teams with multiple 3 score wins against top 15 teams:
Ole Miss
teams with a 3 score win against a top 15 team on the road:
Ole Miss
Ohio State
(UGA also has a neutral site win if Clemson wins the ACC)
That’s it, that’s the list.
Everyone likes to say that South Carolina is getting hot at the right time, but they needed 2 improbable plays in the last minute to barely beat 2 ranked teams. That luck isn’t going to translate to a road game in South Bend. Same thing with Bama. Yes, they can beat anyone in the country, but they will need luck to do it just like they needed luck to beat South Carolina and UGA.
This isn’t a 4 team playoff so every team is going to have “fatal flaws”. But UK, Florida, and LSU aren’t in the playoff which is why quality wins matter more than bad losses. And Ole Miss is the safest choice to prove the committee right.
teams with multiple 3 score wins against top 15 teams:
Ole Miss
teams with a 3 score win against a top 15 team on the road:
Ole Miss
Ohio State
(UGA also has a neutral site win if Clemson wins the ACC)
That’s it, that’s the list.
Everyone likes to say that South Carolina is getting hot at the right time, but they needed 2 improbable plays in the last minute to barely beat 2 ranked teams. That luck isn’t going to translate to a road game in South Bend. Same thing with Bama. Yes, they can beat anyone in the country, but they will need luck to do it just like they needed luck to beat South Carolina and UGA.
This isn’t a 4 team playoff so every team is going to have “fatal flaws”. But UK, Florida, and LSU aren’t in the playoff which is why quality wins matter more than bad losses. And Ole Miss is the safest choice to prove the committee right.
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Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:59 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Why Ole Miss will get the last at large slot
Good luck with that.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:02 pm to SEC Doctor
UGA against Kentucky 13-12
Ole Miss against Kentucky 17-20
There is a 4 point swing thanks to a miracle 4th down PI but people want to act like the last minute of a game matters more than the first 59 minutes when evaluating how bad a team is.
Ole Miss against Kentucky 17-20
There is a 4 point swing thanks to a miracle 4th down PI but people want to act like the last minute of a game matters more than the first 59 minutes when evaluating how bad a team is.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:02 pm to Dixie.Reb
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:03 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Everyone likes to say that South Carolina is getting hot at the right time, but they needed 2 improbable plays in the last minute to barely beat 2 ranked teams
Sounds like they aren't a playoff caliber team then.
quote:
teams with a 3 score win against a top 15 team on the road:
Ole Miss (@ South Carolina)
Wait a minute
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:03 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Everyone likes to say that South Carolina is getting hot at the right time, but they needed 2 improbable plays in the last minute to barely beat 2 ranked teams. That luck isn’t going to translate to a road game in South Bend. Same thing with Bama. Yes, they can beat anyone in the country, but they will need luck to do it just like they needed luck to beat South Carolina and UGA.
I agreed with you until here...and honestly before saying anything else I think OM should be in.
but we needed last minute drives to beat 2 of the 4 ranked teams we beat. The other two ranked teams we beat by 21+. We can't help that A&M and Vandy decided that they didnt want to win anymore as we played them more than halfway through the season.
but yeah OM should 100% be in over Sc and Bama
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:03 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Ole Miss against Kentucky 17-20
Worst team in the SEC beat you on your own field. Not really any way to spin that one.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:03 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
UGA against Kentucky 13-12
Ole Miss against Kentucky 17-20
There is a 4 point swing thanks to a miracle 4th down PI but people want to act like the last minute of a game matters more than the first 59 minutes when evaluating how bad a team is.
UGA was on the road. Ole Miss was at home.
UGA didn't lose.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:05 pm to Dixie.Reb
We aren't getting the last spot.
The last spot will go to one of......Miami, SMU or Bama.
I'd argue we should be in over Bama but it's already been shown the committee has us behind Bama.
USC isn't getting in.
The last spot will go to one of......Miami, SMU or Bama.
I'd argue we should be in over Bama but it's already been shown the committee has us behind Bama.
USC isn't getting in.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:05 pm to DawginSC
quote:
UGA was on the road. Ole Miss was at home.
UGA didn't lose.
also of note...Carolina beat them on the road 31-6 but honestly thats the part that makes all of this so hard, none of the 3 teams were consistent. We won this game big but lost or only won by a little vs a team that the other two blew out. Thats why every team feels they have some argument
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 2:07 pm
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:05 pm to Dixie.Reb
that's it I'm sold - make room on the Ole Miss band wagon for me -
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:06 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
UGA against Kentucky 13-12
Ole Miss against Kentucky 17-20
There is a 4 point swing thanks to a miracle 4th down PI but people want to act like the last minute of a game matters more than the first 59 minutes when evaluating how bad a team is.
Kentucky against Ole Miss - win
Kentucky against the rest of their SEC schedule - 7 losses
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:06 pm to 1801
One thing is for sure based on that photo- Oxford is set for water storage moving forward.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:07 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Why Bama will get the last at large slot
Ole Miss finished the season with a big win over their rival at home. There were 5,000 fewer people in the stadium than there were at the Bama Spring Game. The NCAA wants eyes on tv screen for advertisers. Bama will have more people watching than Ole Miss. They will justify it by pointing to the Kentucky loss.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
might could use a few more double-axle trailers around town - but they do indeed have the water situation well under control -
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:13 pm to GamecockUltimate
quote:
. The other two ranked teams we beat by 21+. We can't help that A&M and Vandy decided that they didnt want to win anymore as we played them more than halfway through the season
And when Ole Miss lost to UK, they were 2 points away from having back to back top 10 wins, but the rest of the season showed how bad they were. Midseason rankings don’t count for end of season evaluations.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:17 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
As the 11-12 seed, there are 2 criteria that matter more than anything
Being Alabama and not being Alabama.
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:23 pm to Dixie.Reb
Well, if the majority if people on the committee think like you then Ole Miss should be fine.
Spoiler: the majority of people on the committee do not think like you.
Spoiler: the majority of people on the committee do not think like you.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 4:00 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
can you beat top 15 (playoff caliber) teams consistently and can you do it on the road in a first round game.
Didn’t you lose to three currently unranked teams while playing the 2nd or third easiest schedule in the SEC? Two of which were on the road?
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