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College Fball Playoff 5 Bubble Teams - Resume/QUAD Ranks (Bama, Miami, USC, Miss, SMU)
Posted on 12/2/24 at 10:08 am
Posted on 12/2/24 at 10:08 am
Tried to get as much of the stuff people seem to talk about and toss about into one table for reference.
Ole Miss has to bank of performance metrics and the fact that all 3 losses were really close. Their wart is losing at home to a Kentucky team with 0 other P4 wins and generally behind behind Alabama in all but performance rankings.
Carolina has to bank on no bad losses and finishing strong. Their warts are they lost to both SEC teams they are competing against and lost 2 games at home, plus generally being behind Alabama in all the computer metrics.
Alabama has to bank on overall strength of wins + general lead in most all of the computer metrics. Their wart is they have 2 of the 3 worst losses of the 3 SEC teams and one of them was by 21 pts.
Miami has to bank on 2 being less than 3. Their warts are basically everything else.
Rankings are all from SP+, any FCS team is ranked #135 across the board
Q1 : H 1-15, A 1-30, N 1-20
Q2 : H 16-40, A 31-50, N 21-45
Q3 : H 41-60, A 51-75, N 46-65
Q4 : H 61+, A 76+, N 66+
In order of average opponent rank
Q1 Wins
1. Alabama (3)
1. Ole Miss (3)
3. Miami (2)
3. South Carolina (2)
5. SMU (1)
Q1/2 Wins
1. Alabama (5)
1. Miami (5)
1. South Carolina (5)
4. Ole Miss (4)
5. SMU (3)
Q2+ Losses
1. Ole Miss (1)
1. SMU (1)
1. South Carolina (1)
4. Alabama (2)
4. Miami (2)
Q3+ Losses
1. SMU (0)
1. South Carolina (0)
3. Alabama (1)
3. Miami (1)
3. Ole Miss (1)
Q4 Wins
1. Alabama (3)
1. South Carolina (3)
3. Miami (5)
3. Ole Miss (5)
5. SMU (6)
Average Win Rank
1. Alabama (#49)
2. South Carolina (#60)
3. Ole Miss (#66)
4. Miami (#68)
5. SMU (#70)
Average Loss Rank
1. South Carolina (#8)
2. SMU (#20)
3. Ole Miss (#29)
4. Alabama (#32)
5. Miami (#55)
Average Opponent Rank Overall
1. Alabama (#45)
2. South Carolina (#47)
3. Ole Miss (#57)
4. Miami (#65)
5. SMU (#66)
Ole Miss has to bank of performance metrics and the fact that all 3 losses were really close. Their wart is losing at home to a Kentucky team with 0 other P4 wins and generally behind behind Alabama in all but performance rankings.
Carolina has to bank on no bad losses and finishing strong. Their warts are they lost to both SEC teams they are competing against and lost 2 games at home, plus generally being behind Alabama in all the computer metrics.
Alabama has to bank on overall strength of wins + general lead in most all of the computer metrics. Their wart is they have 2 of the 3 worst losses of the 3 SEC teams and one of them was by 21 pts.
Miami has to bank on 2 being less than 3. Their warts are basically everything else.
Rankings are all from SP+, any FCS team is ranked #135 across the board
Q1 : H 1-15, A 1-30, N 1-20
Q2 : H 16-40, A 31-50, N 21-45
Q3 : H 41-60, A 51-75, N 46-65
Q4 : H 61+, A 76+, N 66+
In order of average opponent rank
Q1 Wins
1. Alabama (3)
1. Ole Miss (3)
3. Miami (2)
3. South Carolina (2)
5. SMU (1)
Q1/2 Wins
1. Alabama (5)
1. Miami (5)
1. South Carolina (5)
4. Ole Miss (4)
5. SMU (3)
Q2+ Losses
1. Ole Miss (1)
1. SMU (1)
1. South Carolina (1)
4. Alabama (2)
4. Miami (2)
Q3+ Losses
1. SMU (0)
1. South Carolina (0)
3. Alabama (1)
3. Miami (1)
3. Ole Miss (1)
Q4 Wins
1. Alabama (3)
1. South Carolina (3)
3. Miami (5)
3. Ole Miss (5)
5. SMU (6)
Average Win Rank
1. Alabama (#49)
2. South Carolina (#60)
3. Ole Miss (#66)
4. Miami (#68)
5. SMU (#70)
Average Loss Rank
1. South Carolina (#8)
2. SMU (#20)
3. Ole Miss (#29)
4. Alabama (#32)
5. Miami (#55)
Average Opponent Rank Overall
1. Alabama (#45)
2. South Carolina (#47)
3. Ole Miss (#57)
4. Miami (#65)
5. SMU (#66)
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 6:03 pm
6
Posted on 12/2/24 at 10:26 am to SummerOfGeorge
Miami is out. I still think we need SMU to beat Clemson to sneak in. If Clemson wins, I don’t see how they drop SMU out entirely.
Can you add SMU to the comparison?
Can you add SMU to the comparison?
Posted on 12/2/24 at 10:30 am to bamabenny
quote:
I still think we need SMU to beat Clemson to sneak in. If Clemson wins, I don’t see how they drop SMU out entirely.
Yea we need SMU to win. If Clemson wins there is a chance both of them get in. If SMU wins there is no chance of that. No brainer.
quote:
Can you add SMU to the comparison?
Sure
Posted on 12/2/24 at 10:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
If SMU loses and gets in then every team hoping to make the playoff should just cancel all their out of conference power 4 games and schedule 4 paycheck games. Committee will be admitting record is the only thing that matters and there's no benefit to playing a tough schedule.
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 11:03 am
Posted on 12/2/24 at 10:58 am to SummerOfGeorge
I still think SMU is out with a loss. Same as Miami. They were ranked lower than Miami and barely were let in to begin with.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:01 am to bamabenny
Updated with SMU (not including possible Clemson loss) as well as 3 teams safely in for comps.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:03 am to SummerOfGeorge
The only real question has to be: how will the committee view 2 loss SMU vs 3 loss Alabama? SMU will have played 2 ranked teams & lost both. Bama would have played 4 ranked teams & beaten 3 of them.
The committee showed last year that they do not respect the strength of the ACC so maybe that continues this year. If they do choose 2 loss SMU, Greg Byrne should go ahead & cancel any OOC P4 opponent right now & replace them with FCS opponents because the W/L record is all that matters. Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio St, & Penn St. played no one OOC & they're sitting pretty.
The committee showed last year that they do not respect the strength of the ACC so maybe that continues this year. If they do choose 2 loss SMU, Greg Byrne should go ahead & cancel any OOC P4 opponent right now & replace them with FCS opponents because the W/L record is all that matters. Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio St, & Penn St. played no one OOC & they're sitting pretty.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:09 am to RollTide33
quote:
If SMU loses and gets in then every team hoping to make the playoff should just cancel all their out of conference power 4 games and schedule 4 paycheck games. Committee will be admitting record is the only thing that matters and there's no benefit to playing a touch schedule.
That's a downright ridiculous take. The lesson is exactly the opposite.
SMU FBS OOC
Nevada (3-10)
TCU (8-4) - P4 opponent
BYU (10-2) - P4 opponent
Alabama FBS OOC
Western Kentucky (8-4)
South Florida (6-6)
Wisconsin (5-7) - P4 opponent
South Carolina OOC
Old Dominion (5-7)
Clemson (9-3) - P4 opponent
Akron (4-8)
Ole Miss OOC
Middle Tennessee (3-9)
Wake Forest (4-8) - P4 opponent
Georgia Southern (8-4)
All 4 teams played 3 FBS opponents. SMU played 2 P4 opponents whereas Alabama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss played 1.
SMU's FBS OOC opponents were a combined 21-16. Alabama's were a combined 19-17. South Carolina's were 18-18. Ole Miss' were 15-21.
SMU's problem is their conference schedule. Most of the ACC sucks. If they lose to Clemson and get in it will be because the played a TOUGHER OOC schedule than the three SEC teams in contention for the last spot.
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 11:11 am
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:10 am to AlterDWI
Agree. OOC scheduling will be a huge talking point this offseason if ACC gets two in.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:11 am to SummerOfGeorge
Looking at Miami's schedule side by side with Bama's is hilarious.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:12 am to Marktastic86
Have you seen the Indiana and Notre Dame schedules ? Unbelievable how bad they are.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:18 am to AlterDWI
quote:
The committee showed last year that they do not respect the strength of the ACC so maybe that continues this year. If they do choose 2 loss SMU, Greg Byrne should go ahead & cancel any OOC P4 opponent right now & replace them with FCS opponents because the W/L record is all that matters.
SMU actually scheduled hard OOC though. The actual talking point should be Sankey getting ripped for giving the two best programs Alabama and UGA extremely difficult schedules because he has such a hard on for Texas.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:21 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
That's a downright ridiculous take. The lesson is exactly the opposite.
Not for teams in the SEC. Conference schedule is already brutal for most teams, not Texas for some reason, so scheduling difficult out of conference games instead of cupcakes, when teams with no wins against quality competition get in because of record alone, makes no sense.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:21 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
SMU's problem is their conference schedule.
Correct, but the SEC doesn't have that problem. Tennessee isn't sitting here wishing they had scheduled Oregon to boost their resume. Any SEC team who gets to 6 conference wins is going to automatically be in. There's no incentive to schedule a difficult OOC game anymore. If they feel compelled, Alabama should take the Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss route & schedule the lowest P4 bottom feeder they can find.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:22 am to CrimsonBoz
quote:
I still think SMU is out with a loss.
I think in the 12-team era they’ll be very hesitant to do this.
The conferences and networks aren’t going to want to create a reason that they should eliminate conference title games. These are some of the highest rated games of the season.
The format is specifically designed to protect the importance of conference title games.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:25 am to TomRollTideRitter
I agree - I think SMU is in unless they lose by 14+ or something. The best path for us is for SMU to win Saturday night. Anything else is playing with fire.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:25 am to AlterDWI
quote:
Correct, but the SEC doesn't have that problem. Tennessee isn't sitting here wishing they had scheduled Oregon to boost their resume. Any SEC team who gets to 6 conference wins is going to automatically be in.
I agree with this take, but I think it’s already been proven regardless of what happens with SMU.
SMU isn’t a good justification for scheduling soft moving forward. They could be used as justification that the conference office should give its best teams easy schedules, but they scheduled well OOC.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:36 am to TomRollTideRitter
We need UGA to win the SEC and Clemson to lose the ACC to help us out.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 11:44 am to Bamafan24
Just going off the AP poll, a SMU win would pretty much secure us a spot. There's no reason for Miami or Ole Miss or South Carolina to leap frog us. Hell, looking at the metrics in OP we have a better resume than most 10-2 teams.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 12:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I agree it’s not certain. Just my opinion on SMU. How they have ranked them until now and what they have done with Miami with a single loss previously.
I absolutely don’t want to find out so I’d rather SMU win and not worry about it.
I absolutely don’t want to find out so I’d rather SMU win and not worry about it.
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