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re: Stewart Mandel predicts CFP scenarios
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:02 pm to TS1926
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:02 pm to TS1926
quote:
If Alabama ends up beating Georgia and Texas wins against Okie State, a case could be made for either team. And I will concede your point that Texas won the head to head back in the second week of September.
But would you be so confident that Texas would win in a rematch? Everyone forgets, Texas had a four yard scoring drive in the 4th to salt the game away. This was following an awful interception that Milroe gifted right to the Texas DB. That game could have gone either way up until that point.
Texas outgained Bama by 75 yards. Thats normally the indicator on who played better. They had less punts as well. They had more first downs. They controlled Time of Possession. They ran 75 plays compared to 62. In no metric did Alabama win that game including the score board. It was a thorough win that was dominated by Texas especially in the 4th quarter. And after watching Bama struggle mightly with Auburn - No way in hell im picking them head to head over Texas in a rematch. Sorry
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Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:02 pm to BeerSlayer
quote:I know you went to Texas A&M, so counting is really really hard for you, but you do know that 11-1 is a better record than 10-2, right?
So you’re saying Oklahoma is better than Texas.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:02 pm to Jon Ham
quote:that 2 loss team is 8 points away from being undefeated so prob not .
Losing to a two-loss team is better than losing to a one-loss team!!!!
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:05 pm to BeerSlayer
quote:
So you’re saying Oklahoma is better than Texas.
If they had the same record, OU would be ranked ahead of Texas.
But they don't.
Head to head is what it is. A TIE-BREAKER. It matters if the teams have the same record.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:07 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
If Bama and Texas win their CCG:
Bama: 3 top 15 wins, 1 loss to a one-loss team
Texas: 1 top 15 win, 1 loss to a two-loss team
There is no honest debate as to which resume would be better. If Bama clearly has the better resume (they would) you don’t go to the “head to head tiebreaker.”
I disagree. It sucks, but Alabama will keep propping up Texas and it is what it is.
I seriously doubt, short of Alabama dominating Georgia and Texas needing a last second win, that Alabama leaps over Texas with identical records.
Best shot is Texas loses in the Big 12 CG and makes the debate irrelevant; either that, or enough teams lose in front to let both in (which would probably require the absurd outcome of Michigan losing to Iowa).
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:10 pm to skrayper
quote:
Best shot is Texas loses in the Big 12 CG and makes the debate irrelevant; either that, or enough teams lose in front to let both in (which would probably require the absurd outcome of Michigan losing to Iowa).
I think FSU losing to Louisville is the most likely. Texas to OkSU would be second.
If BOTH of those happen, UGA would likely be in as the #4 seed even if they lose to Bama. That would be funny.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:16 pm to skrayper
Five pages of Alabama fans wishing themselves into the college playoffs.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:25 pm to Shea Vinnerbush
quote:
You couldn't have thought that was an actual gotcha response, could you
My point sailed over your head
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:26 pm to TS1926
quote:Not really sure that's possible when you never had a point to begin with
My point sailed over your head
34-24
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:28 pm to Old Sarge
quote:Too bad you don't take away teams on your schedule, then I guess
Take away Alabama and your strength of schedule is in the 30’s, take you away from Alabama schedule and they are still in the top 6
Lol poor aggies. Whenever they're not champions in their hypothetical world, they need to make sure Texas can't win in the same imagination land
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:30 pm to Cadello
Also five pages of Auburn, LSU, and Texas fans wishing them out. The OP simply provided an article by a national columnist who specializes in college football. The most likely scenario is Georgia defeats Alabama, Michigan wins, the Oregon/Washington winner is in, and the only debate is FSU versus Texas (unless one loses). But, if Alabama were to win, they would have a decent argument, and it is far from settled.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:31 pm to floyd of pink
quote:
But its alabama, so we must all suck thy dick.
Suck it bitch!!!!
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:38 pm to AGGIES
quote:
That’s going to be interesting - because FSU has already dropped in the playoff rankings
Behind 4 teams that were undefeated. There aren't 4 now. FSU will be back in tonight and Ohio State will drop.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:43 pm to Shea Vinnerbush
Am I Stewart Mandel?
Goodness you’re an insecure kid
Goodness you’re an insecure kid
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:48 pm to Old Sarge
It is really this simple.
SEC winner is in
Michigan is in (won't lose to Iowa)
P12 winner is in
FSU is in if they win
The only chance TX has of getting in, is if FSU loses to Louisville, which is possible given FSU is running QB2.
SEC winner is in
Michigan is in (won't lose to Iowa)
P12 winner is in
FSU is in if they win
The only chance TX has of getting in, is if FSU loses to Louisville, which is possible given FSU is running QB2.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:56 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
head to head tiebreaker
I am of the opinion Texas should get in over Alabama. I think both belong over Oregon.
The committee has been known to selectively apply h2h results and pick in choose what is and is not close enough for it top matter.
Example 1:
2014 TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor in the penultimate rankings. Then the committee decided h2h mattered one week later.
Example 2: 2016 11-1 Non Division Champion OSU ranks ahead of 11-2 conference champion PSU who beat them h2h.
Example 3: The very next year in the penultimate ranking 10-2 SEC West champion Auburn is ranked ahead of 11-1 Non champion Alabama that they beat h2h and 11-1 SEC East champion UGA they beat h2h.
Example 4: 10-2 Alabama ranks ahead of 10-2 Tennessee that beat them h2h in the final rankings in 2022.
The argument we aren't taking seriously about FSU potentially being left out is more interesting if you consider that in 2017 the penultimate rankings looked like this:
1 Clemson 11-1
2 Auburn 10-2
3 Oklahoma 11-1
4 Wisconsin 12-0
That's a 2 loss team ranked multiple spots ahead of an undefeated P5 team.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 1:33 pm to Shea Vinnerbush
quote:
Not really sure that's possible when you never had a point to begin with
My point is that you can't go by one head to head matchup early in the season. It takes a body of work because teams can improve as the season unwinds; or, they can get worse, injuries occur, etc. We'll see how it plays out. If Alabama is as bad as you guys say, they should lose to Georgia by double digits and it won't matter.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 1:43 pm to Cadello
quote:
Five pages of Alabama fans wishing themselves into the college playoffs.
I suppose that's at least better than wishing for an individual award to justify a mediocre season.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 1:49 pm to EarlyCuyler3
quote:
suppose that's at least better than wishing for an individual award to justify a mediocre season.
This has been a really rough college football season for LSU fans. First they declared Bama dead and Saban washed up and ready to retire. Then they watched as the teams that they live vicariously through to beat Bama, lost to Bama; one by one until the beloved "Tygas" turn came to lose to Bama. And just to add insult to injury, they had the rug pulled out from under them by Auburn
Posted on 11/28/23 at 1:50 pm to rolltide32
quote:
The argument we aren't taking seriously about FSU potentially being left out is more interesting if you consider that in 2017 the penultimate rankings looked like this:
1 Clemson 11-1
2 Auburn 10-2
3 Oklahoma 11-1
4 Wisconsin 12-0
That's a 2 loss team ranked multiple spots ahead of an undefeated P5 team.
1) AU had 2 "quality losses" (if you believe in such a thing) and beat 2 teams both ranked #1 in the last 3 weeks of the season. Had they beaten UGA to be SEC champions they would have added a 3rd win in a 4 week stretch over a team ranked in the top 5. That is a white hot, insane run of ELITE wins to close the season.
That undefeated P5 team you mentioned had a pretty lousy schedule that they went undefeated against because of lack of competitoin. In their title game they played their first top 15 opponent all year, and lost.
Eveyr year is its own thing with its own explanations. AU being ranked in 2017 above other 0/1 loss teams doens't ahve much bearing on FSU this year. You can say taht '17 wisconsin and '23 FSU are similar in that they're undefeateds that are barely treading water, but there isn't anyting close to a 2017 AU out there in this go around.
No 13-0 P5 champ will ever be left out, ever. Although "ever" ends after this year I suppose. Still thoug, it aint happenign.
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