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re: Ran some preliminary numbers for UGA-Bama and AU-Bama

Posted on 11/2/17 at 3:30 pm to
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
53888 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

I just do not think this team is built to come from behind, especially if we have to pick up the pace and start slinging it.


why?

quote:

but I heard a stat yesterday that has me concerned. GMac(I think it was him) on the radio yesterday gave a stat for Hurts that on passes over 20yds(not YAC but in the air) Hurts is like 17% ranked 62nd out of 67 starting Power 5 QBs. Now I do not know how much that stat contributes to bad WR play I have seen out of Foster and Sims so far but no sure we can hit that homerun when we need it if we get down and have to scramble to come back


The only time we've really fell behind this year, Hurts slung a perfect bomb to Ridley to retake the lead.
Posted by TideWarrior
Asheville/Chapel Hill NC
Member since Sep 2009
12231 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

why?


Just do not see it but I could be wrong but hopefully we will not have to find out. Just my opinion as I do not see this team being explosive.

quote:

The only time we've really fell behind this year, Hurts slung a perfect bomb to Ridley to retake the lead.




We are going to face a team that cover Ridley and we need to sling it and he is not an option I not sure the other WRs are consistent enough to do it. Again just my opinion
Posted by Commander Data
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Dec 2016
7291 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

why


Because the only long balls he can hit are when the receivers are wide open. How anybody could have faith in Hurts to lead a comeback passing the ball is baffling.
Posted by Huddie Leadbetter
Member since May 2016
3822 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 5:31 pm to
quote:

Hurts is like 17% ranked 62nd out of 67 starting Power 5 QBs.


17%? Jeeze

Surely, but surely if we get down and Hurts can't connect, Saban will give Tagovailoa a chance before it's too late.
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 6:05 pm
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
53888 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

Because the only long balls he can hit are when the receivers are wide open.





That must be photo shopped or something.


quote:

How anybody could have faith in Hurts to lead a comeback passing the ball is baffling.


He's never even had the opportunity to do this, so its kind of baffling to me that you are absolutely certain that he wouldn't be able to.
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 6:37 pm
Posted by Huddie Leadbetter
Member since May 2016
3822 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 6:37 pm to
Sure, you can find some exceptions, and you can down vote all you want to, but 17%, ranking 62 out of 67 starting power 5 qbs is bad. It's the kind of bad that will get you beat. It did last year. I fail to understand why a supposed Alabama fan would not support the other qb if we needed him.
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
53888 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 6:43 pm to
quote:

Sure, you can find some exceptions,


I was responding to:
quote:

Because the only long balls he can hit are when the receivers are wide open.

My gif proved that his statement was false.

quote:

and you can down vote all you want to,

How do you even know that is me? Do downvotes bother you?

quote:

but 17%, ranking 62 out of 67 starting power 5 qbs is bad.


Meh, I've seen him do it enough to know with certainty that he absolutely can throw accurate long balls.

quote:

It's the kind of bad that will get you beat. It did last year.


Last I checked, he scored a touchdown that gave us the lead on his last possession of that game.

quote:

I fail to understand why a supposed Alabama fan would not support the other qb if we needed him.


where did I say that I would not support another QB if we needed him? You made up that lie. Bad look.
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 6:44 pm
Posted by CrimsonBoz
Member since Sep 2014
17565 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 7:16 pm to
Question Huddie for discussion, does a comeback have to be made up of only 20+ yard passes? If not what is his percentage of passes under 20?
Posted by tider04
North Carolina
Member since Oct 2007
5606 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 7:24 pm to
I understand the concern about whether Jalen could lead an 80 yard drive down the field down 6 with 1:40 left in the game. While his passing has improved this year, he still struggles with accuracy, touch and leading his WR's so they can catch the ball in stride and pick up crucial yards after the catch. Tons of times this year our WR's have to stop to catch a ball behind them, and get tackled where a well placed ball keeps them running full speed to pick up many more yards and maybe even scores. That's a problem. And we haven't hit a bomb down the field since game #1.

This is the reason I think we're seeing Tua get so much playing time. I think Saban is trying to get him ready incase we get into a situation that's not conducive to Jalen's strengths. In that scenario, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see Tua run out with he offense and try to sling it around to give us a chance to win.
Posted by Huddie Leadbetter
Member since May 2016
3822 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 7:27 pm to
quote:

Question Huddie for discussion, does a comeback have to be made up of only 20+ yard passes? If not what is his percentage of passes under 20?




Debating it is kind of pointless, and I have no idea what is Hurts pct under 20 yards. You will note that I didn't post the statistics, and the poster that did said that he heard it on the radio. In any event and from whatever source, I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize it was that bad.
Posted by tider04
North Carolina
Member since Oct 2007
5606 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 7:30 pm to
quote:

bad WR play I have seen out of Foster and Sims

Nothing against Foster or Sims, but it's time to bench those guys IMO when you have Judy and Ruggs sitting over there. Foster and Sims have both been around a long time and basically have done very little. Sims at least is a good blocker, but his hands are suspect at best. Foster has never shown us anything other than he's track fast. Time to make Ridley, Judy and Ruggs the starters IMO and bring in Sims and Smitty off the bench.
Posted by Culverhouse13
Birmingham, AL
Member since Jul 2014
1406 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

Question Huddie for discussion, does a comeback have to be made up of only 20+ yard passes? If not what is his percentage of passes under 20?


Jalen has struggled on deep throws (20+ yards) this year and there’s no arguing that. As with every QB the misses aren’t always his fault.

However, I think he has gotten a hell of a lot better at intermediate throws, which keep the chains moving, compared to last year when all we relied on were throws around the line of scrimmage.
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 7:49 pm
Posted by CrimsonBoz
Member since Sep 2014
17565 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 9:19 pm to
Wasn't trying to stir anything was generally curious what you thought on that topic.
Posted by Gustave
Member since Nov 2015
3392 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:19 pm to
Just an opinion I think Jalen will do fine against adversity (being down 7+). It looks like he plays tight and makes the safe play most of the time because we are up 2 scores. Why take the risk.

He hasn't been tested outside of FSU.
Posted by River_City_Tider
Javksonville
Member since Nov 2015
881 posts
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:52 pm to
I'm sorry, I don't buy these rushing numbers at all.

Georgia cannot run the ball against Alabama. And an immobile frosh QB will be lucky to survive alive.

I do worry about our offense. And we could see a 13-10 type game. But 180 rushing is pure fantasy.
Posted by FleshEatingSalsa
Floating down the Anduin
Member since Dec 2009
12301 posts
Posted on 11/3/17 at 3:12 am to
quote:

SummerOfGeorge


I’m not comfortable with either of these margins. Please re-run the numbers.
Posted by AllDawgCK
Athens
Member since Oct 2017
2318 posts
Posted on 11/3/17 at 7:33 am to
Kind of blind to assume we can't run eh?
Posted by Huddie Leadbetter
Member since May 2016
3822 posts
Posted on 11/3/17 at 7:56 am to
quote:

Kind of blind to assume we can't run eh?


Well, that is based on a pretty long history of run defense since Saban's been here. The only teams that have been successful running the ball on Alabama have also had a good passing game. I do think Fromm is probably a better passing qb than Hurts (and Tagovailoa is better than either) but I'm not sure that Fromm will be good enough to take up the slack for the running game. If he can, that will open it up for your running game.

edit: Assuming we both even make it there.
This post was edited on 11/3/17 at 8:00 am
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
103310 posts
Posted on 11/3/17 at 8:03 am to
quote:

Kind of blind to assume we can't run eh?


Best Pro-Style Opponent Rushing Performances since 2008

2008 LSU : 201 yards, 4.37 YPC
2010 LSU : 225 yards, 5.00 YPC
2011 LSU : 148 yards, 3.61 YPC
2012 LSU : 139 yards, 2.84 YPC
2013 Arkansas : 165 yards, 4.23 YPC (blowout win)
2014 LSU : 183 yards, 3.27 YPC
2015 UGA : 193 yards, 5.08 YPC (blowout win, 80 of which were on 1 run down 35 pts)
2015 Tennessee : 132 yards, 3.38 YPC
2017 Colorado State : 144 yards, 3.60 YPC (blowout win)

I'm nervous about a lot of things with Alabama football. Stopping a pro-style team from running the football is not one of them. Ever.
This post was edited on 11/3/17 at 8:07 am
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
103310 posts
Posted on 11/3/17 at 8:03 am to
quote:

I’m not comfortable with either of these margins. Please re-run the numbers.




Begin girding your loins now sir
This post was edited on 11/3/17 at 8:04 am
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