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Bama vs. Duke pre game discussion
Posted on 3/28/25 at 7:21 am
Posted on 3/28/25 at 7:21 am
I really think we have a decent chance.
Hopefully this will be the game that Duke's relatively weak schedule catches up with them.
If the refs just give us a chance, I think we can hang with them.
I don't expect another record setting 3 point barrage again, but it's not imperative we shoot at that high of level. We could win just playing an A game,regardless of how well Duke plays.
Hopefully this will be the game that Duke's relatively weak schedule catches up with them.
If the refs just give us a chance, I think we can hang with them.
I don't expect another record setting 3 point barrage again, but it's not imperative we shoot at that high of level. We could win just playing an A game,regardless of how well Duke plays.
10
Posted on 3/28/25 at 7:31 am to East Coast Band
We need to play D with our legs and not just our arms. I saw a lot of reach in fouls. We also need to limit the TO's. In the first half of last nights game BYU made a bucket after every one of our TO's. I think that was 12 points. I did not keep up in the second half. Our FT shooting has to be on point and it was last night. Cliff was great on his.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 9:22 am to mrbroker
Duke gets ALL the calls! It’s ridiculous. Perfect example was last night when Arizona was charged with a flagrant foul when one of their players committed a hook and hold and took the Duke player to the floor. Just a few possessions later, a Duke player committed the exact same foul. After review, it was deemed a common foul. No shots, no possession for Arizona.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 9:55 am to East Coast Band
I'm guessing it will be Mo D and Stevenson on Flagg. Duke will definitely try to run Bama off the 3 point line, so good passing and few turnovers are key. I like their chances, but it is going to take a full effort from start to finish.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 10:56 am to East Coast Band
Reading through the Duke fans' thoughts on the game. It's mostly the normal stuff you hear from every fanbase, but I did come across one post from someone who understands what he’s seeing. I thought I'd share it here with my best good friends.
quote:
The perception that Alabama is a bad defensive team (which is a common one, I’m just using these posts as a jumping-off point) is a textbook example of fast pace distorting impressions, kind of like those Steve Nash Phoenix Suns teams that everyone thought were terrible defensively but were actually about average.*
Alabama’s opponents score a lot of points primarily because Alabama’s opponents get a lot of possessions, and because Alabama has played a tough schedule.**
On a per-possession basis, and adjusting for quality of opposition, Alabama’s defense is 10th-best in the country by Kenpom’s calculation and 26th by Torvik. They do a good job of preventing threes and have the 37th-best opponent effective FG% in the country.
The 88 points Alabama yielded against BYU’s top 10 offense in a 79-possession game last night was good for an adjusted defensive rating of 96.5 (Torvik), which would be a top-30 rating over the course of a full season. Just two weeks ago, Alabama held Kentucky, the top 10 (Kenpom) or 12 (Torvik) offense in the country, to 70 points in an 83-possession game. Earlier this month, they gave up 91 points against Auburn, which seems bad until you factor in that it was an 82-possession game against a top-3 offense. Adjusted, that’s an adjusted defensive rating of 89.7 (Torvik) — which would be 2nd-best in the country over a full season.
Largely because of Alabama’s style (particularly the fact that they take a ton of threes and three-point shooting is inherently high-variance) nothing from a Duke blowout to an Alabama blowout would surprise me. But if Duke scores a lot of points it won’t be because Alabama’s defense is bad; it will be because Duke’s offense is good (and, perhaps, because Alabama gets the pace it wants.)
* In 2004-2005, for example, the Suns gave up the most points per game in the league … because their fast pace meant they played a ton of defensive possessions. Adjusted for pace, their defense was almost exactly in the middle of the pack.
** 9th toughest schedule in the country, by Kenpom’s calculation.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:31 am to East Coast Band
the pressure is all on Duke. Absolutely no one is giving Bama a chance
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:39 am to phil4bama
be aggressive at the rim and hit FTs, I like our chances.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:44 am to East Coast Band
Everyone will be picking Duke and absolutely don’t blame them. Duke has been a wagon this year. Best chance to win is to get them in foul trouble, especially Flagg, since they don’t have a deep bench. It’ll be a rougher quick turn around for them compared to us. If we can dictate pace I think we’ll have a strong chance.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:45 am to East Coast Band
Playing the insane schedule that Alabama did to end the regular season helps us in this situation. We know how talented they are. But, we have faced similar opponents in Florida and Auburn. It will be very interesting to see how Nate prepares the team and the game plan.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:09 pm to East Coast Band
This board had me believing that Alabama couldn't beat the last two teams.
I'll say what I said before each of the last two games. Alabama is going to beat Duke's arse, Bama by double digits.
I'll say what I said before each of the last two games. Alabama is going to beat Duke's arse, Bama by double digits.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:30 pm to East Coast Band
Spread opened at Duke -6.5.
Pretty high to me. Somewhat disrespect to Alabama, but then again blue bloods tend to get points in Vegas
Pretty high to me. Somewhat disrespect to Alabama, but then again blue bloods tend to get points in Vegas
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:47 pm to TheNameIsDalton
quote:
especially Flagg, since they don’t have a deep bench.
According to EvanMiya, Duke has the deepest 8 man rotation in the country. Their 8th worst player is only 42 spots behind Mark Sears in their ranking.
I think their ratings are way off when it comes to individual players, but that's what the stat says.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:52 pm to VaBamaMan
I am not going to get my hopes up too high, I just hope that we come out fighting and have them on the ropes in the last 5 minutes. I think we have it in us, but it will require a big effort.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:58 pm to Funky Tide 8
Our biggest problem is their length. Sears and Holloway have both shown they have issues playing height, and they play 3 guards who are all 6'6.
Bama can absolutely win this game, we definitely won't be intimidated at the very least.
I would not be suprised if we have been saving Reid's minutes for this game to guard Flagg. They've played against each other a ton, and Reid can bother him. Stevenson tends to be too soft, but he definitely has the length, if he's having a good day, to do it too. MoD is a bit too stiff to stay with him.
Bama can absolutely win this game, we definitely won't be intimidated at the very least.
I would not be suprised if we have been saving Reid's minutes for this game to guard Flagg. They've played against each other a ton, and Reid can bother him. Stevenson tends to be too soft, but he definitely has the length, if he's having a good day, to do it too. MoD is a bit too stiff to stay with him.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 1:16 pm to VaBamaMan
quote:
Our biggest problem is their length. Sears and Holloway have both shown they have issues playing height, and they play 3 guards who are all 6'6.
That's my concern. I haven't watched them enough to know how well those big guards move, but I'm assuming they're a lot better than BYU's tall guards. They're also big inside, so if they force us to drive, there might not be a ton of easy finishes at the rim.
However, if you want to feel a little better, scroll through their schedule and the game scores. They've blown out a lot of nobodies, but the scores have been relatively close against better teams. UK beat them and AU should have. I don't think it's a GREAT matchup for us, but I also don't think Duke has faced an offense as good, or as fast as ours. So, it will take a very good game by Bama, but we can beat them.
This post was edited on 3/28/25 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 3/28/25 at 1:33 pm to Teague
They lost at Clemson earlier in the season. CU outplayed them most of the game and we are a better team than Clemson right now. Plus the schedule that we played this season is absurd.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 2:36 pm to VaBamaMan
quote:
and they play 3 guards who are all 6'6.
I’ve watched them a couple times this year, three after last night. I didn’t realize until last night their entire starting lineup were giants
Posted on 3/28/25 at 2:47 pm to East Coast Band
I hope to see Flagg sucking wind in the final minutes like he did in their losses against Clemson and UK. He’s good but if he has a weakness it’s stamina.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 2:54 pm to RumHam
quote:
didn’t realize until last night their entire starting lineup were giants
They do not have a player shorter than 6'5. Just insane for a college roster.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 3:15 pm to VaBamaMan
Maybe Nate should play a lot of 5 out with Sherrell. That might let our guards get easy points at the rim.
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