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We get Oklahoma State ----- Potential bowl and bowl opponent watch thread:

Posted on 10/30/23 at 4:53 pm
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 10/30/23 at 4:53 pm
5-3 w/a game against Abilene Christian on 11/18 our odds of making a bowl are at 99.9%.

Our remaining schedule

11/04 - at Ole Miss
11/11 - Mississippi State
11/18 - Abilene Christian
11/25 - at LSU

I do not have any confidence w/the games at Ole Miss and LSU. It's been two years since we won a true road game and the offense has been so terrible that I just don't see how we can score enough to win those games.

As for the other two, ACU should be a win simply from a talent standpoint and Mississippi State has an offense that's so bad they would likely trade w/us in a heartbeat. The MSU game should go about the same as the South Carolina game IMO. An ugly win but ultimately a win by double digits.

That would put us at 7-5 on the year.

As a reminder the SEC bowl order goes like this

SEC
1. NY6 (normally Sugar but it's a playoff game this season)
2. Citrus vs Big 10 (or ACC if Big 10 team goes to the Orange)

Tier 1 Group of 6: SEC in consultation with bowls and schools assign teams

ReliaQuest Bowl vs Big Ten (formerly the Outback Bowl)
Duke's Mayo Bowl vs ACC (formerly the Belk Bowl)
Gator Bowl vs ACC
Music City Bowl vs Big Ten
Texas Bowl vs Big 12
Liberty Bowl vs Big 12

*Las Vegas Bowl (vs Pac-12) and Duke's Mayo Bowl are on rotation. Mayo Bowl is in odd years while Vegas is in even.

Tier 2

Birmingham Bowl vs G6 pool
Gasparilla Bowl vs G6 pool

This is the bowl selection order for potential opponents through for the top 8 SEC bowls

ACC
NOTE: Selections made with schools, bowls, and conference office, no order of selection outside of NY6 bowls, then tier #1 bowls, then tier #2 bowls

No. 1 New Year's Six. ACC Champion (if not selected for the College Football Playoff) goes to the Orange Bowl

Tier No. 1

The Pop-Tarts Bowl versus Big 12
The Gator Bowl versus SEC
The Duke's Mayo Bowl versus SEC (odd-numbered years) or Big Ten (even-numbered years)
The Sun Bowl versus Pac-12
The Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl versus Big Ten
The Holiday Bowl versus Pac-12
The Fenway Bowl versus the American Athletic
The Military Bowl versus the American Athletic

Tier #2

The Gasparilla Bowl versus SEC or AAC or Pac-12
The Birmingham Bowl versus SEC or AAC

The First Responder Bowl versus Big XII or C-USA or AAC

Big 10
No. 1 New Year's Six. The champion goes to either the Cotton Bowl Classic, the Fiesta Bowl or the Peach Bowl unless they are selected for the College Football Playoff.
No. 2 The Citrus Bowl versus SEC
No. 3 The ReliaQuest Bowl versus SEC

No. 4 The Duke's Mayo Bowl versus ACC (even-numbered years) or the Las Vegas Bowl versus Pac-12 (odd-numbered years)
No. 5 The Music City Bowl versus SEC
No. 6 The Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl versus ACC
No. 7 The Guaranteed Rate Bowl versus Big 12 No. 6
No. 8 The Quick Lane Bowl versus MAC

Big 12
No. 1 New Year's Six. The champion goes to either the Cotton Bowl Classic, the Fiesta Bowl or the Peach Bowl unless they are selected for College Football Playoff.
No. 2 The Alamo Bowl versus Pac-12.
No. 3 The Pop-Tarts Bowl versus ACC.
No. 4 The Texas Bowl versus SEC.
No. 5 The Liberty Bowl versus SEC.

No. 6 The Guaranteed Rate Bowl versus Big Ten No. 7.
No. 7 The First Responder Bowl or Armed Forces Bowl
No. 8 The Independence Bowl versus Pac 12.

Here are the current standings





Current Media Projections
Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) - Texas vs Kansas State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) - Texas vs Kansas
Mark Schlabach (ESPN) - Gator vs Duke
Brett McMurphy (Action Network) - Texas vs Kansas
Steven Lassan (Athlon) - Texas vs Kansas
Brad Crawford (247 Sports) - Texas vs Kansas
Bill Bender (Sporting News) - Mayo vs Clemson
Zac Al-Khateeb (USA Today) - Texas vs BYU
Oliver Hodgkinson (CollegeFootballNetwork) - Mayo vs Boston College
This post was edited on 12/3/23 at 7:06 pm
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/6/23 at 4:08 pm to
Current Media Projections
Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) - Texas vs Kansas
Mark Schlabach (ESPN) - Texas vs Oklahoma
Brett McMurphy (Action Network) - Texas vs Oklahoma
Steven Lassan (Athlon) - Texas vs Oklahoma State
Brad Crawford (247 Sports) - Texas vs Kansas State
Bill Bender (Sporting News) - Texas vs Oklahoma
Zac Al-Khateeb (USA Today) - Texas vs West Virginia
Oliver Hodgkinson (CollegeFootballNetwork) - Music City vs Maryland

Current Standings

Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:10 pm to
Current Media Projections
Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) - Texas vs Oklahoma State
Mark Schlabach (ESPN) - Texas vs Kansas State
Brett McMurphy (Action Network) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Steven Lassan (Athlon) - Texas vs Oklahoma State
Brad Crawford (247 Sports) - Texas vs Oklahoma
Bill Bender (Sporting News) - Texas vs Oklahoma State
Eric Smith (USA Today) - Texas vs Oklahoma State
Oliver Hodgkinson (CollegeFootballNetwork) - Music City vs Northwestern


This post was edited on 11/15/23 at 11:45 am
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2986 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:47 pm to
Give me a shitty B10 team if those are my options
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 12:27 pm to
I would also prefer a team from the Big 10 mainly b/c we have yet to play a single Big 10 team in a bowl since joining the SEC. The last time we played a Big 10 team was Northwestern in the Texas Bowl our final season in the Big 12.

Whoever it is, I'd prefer our opponent to be a team we haven't played in the last 20 or so years. I do not want to have to go up against Wake, UNC, NC State, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami, Oklahoma State, OU, West Virginia, Kansas State, Kansas, Texas Tech, or Northwestern.

Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and maaaaaybe TCU are the only 3 that we've played in the last 25 years I wouldn't be really annoyed about playing.

Anyway, here's who I think are our most likely pool of opponents as of right now. This assumes the few 5 win and 4 win teams hit 6 though a few obviously won't get there.

ACC
NC State - 7-3
Duke - 6-4
Boston College - 6-4
Clemson - 6-4
Miami - 6-4 (super low odds b/c it'd be a rematch but I'm sure some dickhead TV person will push for it)
Virginia Tech - 5-5
Georgia Tech - 5-5
Syracuse - 5-5
Wake Forest - 4-6

Big 12
Kansas State - 7-3
Oklahoma State - 7-3
Kansas - 7-3
Iowa State - 6-4
West Virginia - 6-4
Texas Tech - 5-5
BYU - 5-5
UCF - 5-5
TCU - 4-6
Houston - 4-6

Big 10
Maryland - 6-4
Rutgers - 6-4
Northwestern - 5-5
Nebraska - 5-5
Wisconsin - 5-5
Illinois - 5-5
Minnesota - 5-5


Since I'd rather a team we have not played in a really long time or at all here is who I'd prefer in no particular order.

Boston College - last played in 1982, H2H is 1-3
Georgia Tech - last played 1966, H2H is 1-1
Syracuse - never played
BYU - last played in 1996, H2H is 1-2
UCF - never played
Houston - last played in 1995, H2H is 19-12-3
Maryland - last played in 1958, H2H is 2-0
Rutgers - never played
Wisconsin - never played
Illinois - last played in 1976, H2H is 2-0
Minnesota - never played

I'm fine w/these 3 as well though I still prefer somebody we haven't played in this century

Virginia Tech - last played in 2003, H2H record is 2-2
Nebraska - last played in 2010, H2H is 4-10
TCU - last played in 2001, H2H is 56-29-7
This post was edited on 11/15/23 at 5:40 pm
Posted by Raid05
Houston
Member since Jan 2013
1104 posts
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:32 am to
I am torn on the Texas Bowl, living in Houston I would be going to the game for sure, just have zero excitement about playing any of the Big 12 teams we would face. I do have a K-State neighbor that talks crap, so getting them back for 2016 would be nice.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/16/23 at 3:18 pm to
As there are several potential P5 opponents who are not yet bowl eligible so I'm listing who all they have left to play to see just how likely it is that they make it.

ACC
Virginia Tech (5-5) - NC State (7-3), at Virginia (2-8)
Georgia Tech (5-5) - Syracuse (5-5), Georgia (10-0)
Syracuse (5-5) - at Georgia Tech (5-5), Wake Forest (4-6)
Wake Forest (4-6) - at Notre Dame (7-3), at Syracuse (5-5)

Big 12
Texas Tech (5-5) - UCF (5-5), at Texas (9-1)
BYU (5-5) - Oklahoma (8-2), at Oklahoma State (7-3)
UCF (5-5) - at Texas Tech (5-5), Houston (4-6)
TCU (4-6) - Baylor (3-7), at Oklahoma (8-2)
Houston (4-6) - Oklahoma State (7-3), at UCF (5-5)

Big 10
Northwestern (5-5) - Purdue (3-7), at Illinois (5-5)
Nebraska (5-5) - at Wisconsin (5-5), Iowa (8-2)
Wisconsin (5-5) - Nebraska (5-5), at Minnesota (5-5)
Illinois (5-5) - at Iowa (8-2), Northwestern (5-5)
Minnesota (5-5) - at Ohio State (10-0), Wisconsin (5-5)

This weekend guarantees at least 3 more potential opponents will be bowl eligible as the winners of Nebraska/Wisconsin, UCF/Texas Tech, and Syracuse/Georgia Tech will move to 6-5.

Wake Forest is likely done this weekend after their game against Notre Dame since they need to win out.

Things are also not looking good for BYU, Houston, and TCU considering who they have left.


If anyone wants to watch any of the three games that guarantee a potential opponent here is when they play. All times are CST

4:00pm
UCF at Texas Tech - FS2

6:30pm
Nebraska at Wisconsin - NBC

7:00pm
Syracuse at Georgia Tech - ACCN
This post was edited on 11/16/23 at 3:19 pm
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/17/23 at 12:53 pm to
They’ll probably end up in the Fenway or Pinstripe but after seeing Boston College last night I’d love for them to be our opponent as I think we’d completely crush them. Since we aren’t going to one of the better bowls anyways I’d much prefer somebody we’ll beat the breaks off of to at least finish out the year on a winning note. Also, they have some nice uniforms. No nasty bright orange like we’d get w/Syracuse or Illinois.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/18/23 at 10:50 pm to
Potential opponents who became bowl eligible today
Texas Tech
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Georgia Tech

Teams whose season was ended w/a loss today
Houston
Wake Forest
Posted by PhilipMarlowe
Member since Mar 2013
20485 posts
Posted on 11/19/23 at 10:13 am to
quote:

Northwestern


Would love to curb stomp them just because it would piss off Michael Wilbon. Dude hates him some A&M.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/20/23 at 9:28 pm to
Current Media Projections
Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) - Texas vs Kansas State
Mark Schlabach (ESPN) - Texas vs Kansas State
Brett McMurphy (Action Network) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Steven Lassan (Athlon) - Texas vs Oklahoma State
Brad Crawford (247 Sports) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Bill Bender (Sporting News) - Gator vs Clemson
Zac Al-Khateeb (USA Today) - Texas vs West Virginia
Oliver Hodgkinson (CollegeFootballNetwork) - Texas Bowl vs Oklahoma State


Posted by TAMU-93
Sachse, TX
Member since Oct 2012
898 posts
Posted on 11/21/23 at 3:45 pm to
I don't believe we've ever played Wisconsin. It would be novel at least.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 12:12 pm to
Current Media Projections
Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) - Texas vs Kansas State
Mark Schlabach (ESPN) - Texas vs Kansas State
Brett McMurphy (Action Network) - Texas vs Oklahoma State
Steven Lassan (Athlon) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Brad Crawford (247 Sports) - Music City vs Wisconsin
Bill Bender (Sporting News) - Gator vs Clemson
Zac Al-Khateeb (USA Today) - Texas vs West Virginia
Oliver Hodgkinson (CollegeFootballNetwork) - Texas Bowl vs Kansas State


This post was edited on 11/30/23 at 6:15 pm
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 6:14 pm to
Saw in a thread on TexAgs that A&M went 0-5 against top 50 scoring offenses this year.



Miami FL
#36 w/32.1 ppg, #25 w/441 ypg
Alabama
#18 w/35.8 ppg, #49 w/409.1 ypg
Tennessee
#42 w/31.5 ppg, #18 w/453.5 ypg
Ole Miss
#23 w/34.8 ppg, #16 w/455.4 ypg
LSU
#1 w/46.4 ppg, #1 w/547.8 ypg

The FBS offenses we beat this season were, to put it simply, atrocious.

New Mexico
#60 w/27.3ppg, #48 w/410.6 ypg
Louisiana Monroe
#128 w/17.3 ppg, #112 320.9 ypg
Auburn
#68 w/27.3 ppg, #91 w/355.5 ypg
Arkansas
#72 w/26.6 ppg, #108 w/326.5 ypg
South Carolina
#77 w/26.0 ppg, #83 w/363.1 ypg
Mississippi State
#107 w/21.8, #104 w/328.6 ypg

W/that in mind I checked out the offenses of potential bowl opponents (pundit predicted schools only)

Wisconsin
#102 w/22.8 ppg, #77 w/370.8 ypg
Northwestern
#104 w/22.8 ppg, #124 w/305.1
Kansas State
#12 w/37.8 ppg, #23 w/446.1 ypg
Oklahoma State
#49 w/30.2 ppg, #31 w/432.8 ypg
West Virginia
#40 w/31.6 ppg, #27 w/438.2 ypg
Clemson
#56 w/29.2 ppg, #52 w/405.7 ypg


So just at a glance it seems like our best bet to win is going to be against either Wisconsin or Northwestern and we might be in trouble against the Big 12 teams w/Kansas State being the most dangerous.

2023 FBS offensive stats
This post was edited on 11/30/23 at 6:17 pm
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2986 posts
Posted on 12/3/23 at 3:41 pm to
Texas Bowl vs Oklahoma State. Boring repeat bowl from a few years ago
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58055 posts
Posted on 12/3/23 at 7:03 pm to
Oklahoma State and Kansas State in the Texas were the two least interesting possibilities we had so of course we get stuck w/Oklahoma State in the Texas. Even worse is we played OSU so recently in the Texas Bowl that Anias Smith actually played in it and had 106 all purpose yards; 7 carries for 54 yards, 2 catches for 13, 3 kick returns for 36 yards, and 1 punt return for 3 yards.
This post was edited on 12/3/23 at 7:06 pm
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
21908 posts
Posted on 12/14/23 at 9:54 am to
Who the hell is coaching the offense in the Bowl game? I just realized we have no OC. Not that we really need one against OkSU.

Third string QB
No OC
Deadbeat HC
DC on his way out the door


I mean, damn. It's going to be funny when we still win the game
Posted by Pvt Hudson
Member since Jan 2013
3547 posts
Posted on 12/14/23 at 10:20 am to
quote:

I mean, damn. It's going to be funny when we still win the game


Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60140 posts
Posted on 12/14/23 at 11:20 am to
quote:

I mean, damn. It's going to be funny when we still win the game


Lol
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
21908 posts
Posted on 12/14/23 at 12:27 pm to
OkSU is a terrible team. I mean, seriously bad. Their QB has the arm of a wet noodle, and we should be able to win with our backups.
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