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The last few years at KY can't be thrown out however. His record at KY Includes 12/15 years making the NCAA tourney. But, his last 6 years weren't stellar to end the season.

I agree that this can't be overlooked, but it is also the reason that he's the coach at Arkansas now, so a bit of a blessing.

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What Muss did at Arkansas was much better in the tourney.

No doubt that Muss did a great job getting deeper in the tournament over the last 5 years, but Cal has clearly been the better regular season coach. From 2020-2024 Muss was 47-42 in conference play, while Cal was 62-27. Muss had his best tournament runs as a 3 seed (2021) and 4 seed (2022). A fairly obvious point, but the better your tournament seeding, the better chance you have of making a deep run. I think Cal gives you that.

I also think that Cal's style of play has a higher ceiling. Looking at efficiency rankings and success over the last 10 or so tournaments, over 80% of final four teams are ranked in the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Cal has had teams ranked in the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency 4 of the last 5 years.

To make a final four without a top 50 offensive efficiency, you have to be a top 5 defensive efficiency team (San Diego State (2023) & South Carolina (2017)) or have Sister Jean on your side. Muss had some very good defensive teams (top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency), but only finished in the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency once at Arkansas (43rd in 2021).

Unsurprisingly, most of your national champions have a top 10 adjusted offensive efficiency and a top 20 defensive efficiency.

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His "one and done" approach to recruiting hasn't been stellar in a time when experience, development, and portal matters.

Why do we thing he will do better at Arkansas?

I get the sense that Cal realizes he needs to adapt to the current landscape of college basketball. He can't live or die with one and dones. How willing he is to adapt and build a roster with blue chips and experienced portal pieces will determine how successful he is at Arkansas. It's looking good so far.