re: March Job Numbers: "Stronger than expected"

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I swear this is like pick your poison.

If the job report is positive so goes a good day in the market, but also no so good news for future rate cuts.

If the job report is negative then the market responds negatively, but we then look for the potential rate cut in the horizon.

Where is the sweet spot with all of this?

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There's not really a "sweet spot", it's more of a "turning point".

One issue is that the market sees what it wants to see. When JPow announced the possibility of three cuts this year, the market said "HOLY frick!! HE JUST SAID SIX CUTS THIS YEAR!!!111omgomgz"

Market players know what the Fed is looking for: shrinking job creation, rising unemployment, slowing manufacturing and inflation getting to 2% or below. Buuuuuuut... until then we have a growing economy.

So the market is a bit schizophrenic right now. It loves the economic growth but knows the environment causing that growth isn't good long-term. It wants rates cut so there can be MORE growth and a more stable future, but it also doesn't want the downturn necessary to facilitate that (you don't cut rates because the economy is growing, you cut rates to stimulate growth because the economy is stalling/falling).

I believe the turning point will be once inflation is tamed at/below 2% for a few months, that's when things will begin to stabilize. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening anytime soon.