E8: Purdue 72 Tenn 66 Final

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NC State’s eight-game win streak technically began two contests earlier, but it was really the Wolfpack’s ACC Tournament quarterfinal win over Duke that announced it was a threat. The Wolfpack threw some new looks at the Blue Devils, outshot them and escaped with a 74-69 victory as 11-point underdogs. Yes, 11-point underdogs. That makes this line as large of an adjustment as you’ll ever see between two healthy teams playing each other at neutral sites twice in a span of less than three weeks. It might be too much. The Wolfpack is certainly playing much better now, but it also took an overtime victory to get past No. 14 seed Oakland as 6-point favorites two rounds ago. This is the same spread Duke commanded on N.C. State’s home floor less than a month ago ahead of a 79-64 victory that made the former look significantly better than the latter. And the Blue Devils may still be that much better. Lean: Duke -6.5.

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Here’s yet another rematch from earlier in the season, but with a spread that doesn’t stray from the one sports books posted for a semifinal in the Maui Invitational in November. Purdue was also a 3-point favorite against Tennessee in that game before winning 71-67. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the nation but guarding Zach Edey proved a problem as the 7-footer scored 23 points while making seven of his 10 field-goal attempts. Denying entry passes will be Tennessee’s gameplan again, but the Boilermakers have only gotten better at feeding their superstar in the post without fault. One of these coaches is bound to get castigated for falling short again, but the truth is, they’ve both done strong work with their respective teams this year. There’s not an advantage on the sideline either way, so it comes down to the players. With apologies to Tennessee’s always-electric Dalton Knecht, Purdue has the player most likely to take over the game in Edey. I didn’t expect to take all favorites in the Elite Eight — and think that’s a first in the 13-year history of this series — but a few teams have simply separated themselves from the pack in this year’s tournament. Lean: Purdue -3.

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