College football playoff scenarios...

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, Michigan, OSU, WA

1 loss teams that could possibly control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:


ACC: Louisville*
Big10: Penn State*
Big12: Texas
PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Bama and Ole Miss*

* Ole Miss won't make the SECCG but if they did upset Georgia and win out they might could get in at 1 loss with no conference championship if Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG.

*Louisville with their bad loss and ND losing to Clemson this past week I think at this point would be left out for sure if it came down to them against the other 1 loss contenders at the end. I don't think a win now over an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG would be enough to get them a spot if the committee was choosing between them and a 1 loss non-conference champion Ole Miss, OSU, Washington or Michigan.

* Penn State likely loses out on making the Big10 CG in a 3 way tie so it will be tough for them to get in if that doesn't change.

We have to see what the opponents of these teams do but a 1 loss ACC champion (definitely Louisville and probably FSU) I think would be left out to the other 1 loss conference champs and to 1 loss non-conference champs Ole Miss, OSU or Washington and even Michigan at this point. There will be some arguments at the end if that last spot comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and if any of these 4 teams end up with 1 loss and no conference championship.

Craziest scenario for the committee: Undefeated Michigan*, one loss Texas*, one loss Bama*, one loss Georgia, one loss OSU, one loss FSU*, one loss Oregon* or one loss Washington.
*conference champion

The committee will have a really hard time dealing with that scenario since Texas beat Bama on the road. We know Michigan and Bama will be locks and FSU will likely be left out but who will the other 2 be out of Texas, Georgia, OSU and Oregon/Washington, It will be hard to keep TX out with that Bama road win and a 1 loss PAC12 team might have the best overall wins resume. Georgia will be the 1 loss defending champs who only lost in the SECCG.